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What a UK government led by Reform would really look like

Reform UK’s potential to form a government is under scrutiny as its performance in local councils reveals internal discord and financial struggles, casting doubt on its readiness for national leadership. The party, leading in opinion polls since May 2025, faces real-world tests in the 10 English local authorities it controls, with experts questioning its ability to translate campaign promises into effective governance.

A leaked video from Kent County Council, Reform’s flagship authority, exposed internal tensions when leader Linden Kemkaran was recorded swearing at fellow councillors and telling them to “suck it up” if they disagreed. This incident led to the expulsion of five councillors and criticism from opposition parties, who labeled the behavior unprofessional and indicative of chaos. Kemkaran remains in post, declaring “business as usual,” but the fallout has prompted broader questions about the party’s credibility and discipline as it aims for higher office.

To address promises of cutting wasteful spending, Reform launched a “DOGE” unit, inspired by Elon Musk’s efficiency efforts, comprising software engineers, data analysts, and forensic auditors. However, the unit has encountered legal challenges in accessing sensitive council data and has so far visited only a handful of the councils under Reform’s control. Zia Yusuf, who led the unit until recently, claims hundreds of millions in savings have been identified, such as halting office moves and net-zero schemes, but progress has been slow.

Financial pressures on councils are severe, with the Local Government Association estimating an £8.4 billion funding gap by 2028/29. Most budgets are consumed by statutory services like adult social care and children’s services, which have increased from 63% to up to 76% of spending over the past decade. Stuart Hoddinott of the Institute for Government argues that Reform’s identified savings are “minuscule” compared to these challenges, describing them as a “mirage” that fails to address systemic issues.

Reform is now scaling back its ambitious national promises, with leader Nigel Farage recently stating that substantial tax cuts worth £90 billion annually are not “realistic” due to the “dire state” of public finances. Instead, the party proposes modest changes, such as raising tax thresholds and scrapping inheritance tax for family-run businesses. This shift reflects the dawning reality of governance constraints, similar to those faced in local councils, where budget gaps force tough choices.

As councils begin setting budgets for next year, Reform-led authorities like Lancashire and Worcestershire are considering council tax rises of up to 10% alongside spending cuts. Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, now overseeing the DOGE unit, emphasizes keeping increases low but acknowledges that savings alone may not prevent hikes. Tony Travers of the London School of Economics notes that reforming complex areas like pension systems takes time, undermining Reform’s rapid cost-cutting narrative.

Political analysts suggest that Reform’s electoral support is driven more by issues like immigration and disillusionment with mainstream parties than local governance performance. Luke Tryl of More in Common believes that only a major council failure, such as a crisis in social care or bankruptcy, could significantly harm the party’s prospects, as voters may overlook minor disputes. However, the heightened scrutiny of Reform’s actions in councils could influence perceptions of its competence ahead of the general election.

Ultimately, Reform’s experience in local government highlights the universal challenges of public administration, where any party would struggle with limited resources and statutory demands. The party’s journey from a “pirate ship” to a potential government force remains uncertain, but its first six months in power illustrate that governing is no easy task, regardless of political affiliation.

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