India is rapidly overtaking China in the pace of clean energy adoption, according to a recent analysis, suggesting that the world’s most populous country could leapfrog an era of intensive fossil fuel use. A new report from the climate think tank Ember finds that at equivalent stages of economic development, India is generating more solar power, electrifying transport faster, and using fewer fossil fuels per person than China did, driven largely by plummeting costs of renewable technologies.
The study compares India’s current energy pathway with China’s in 2012, when both nations had similar income levels around $11,000 per capita. At that time, China had virtually no solar capacity, whereas solar now constitutes 9% of India’s electricity mix, making it the world’s third-largest solar power producer. This growth spans from vast solar farms to rooftop installations, reflecting a broad-based push towards renewables that is reshaping the country’s energy landscape.
In transportation, electric vehicles are gaining rapid traction, particularly in the three-wheeler segment that dominates urban and rural short-distance travel. Nearly 60% of all three-wheeler sales in India are now electric, with drivers like Prem Chand in Delhi citing lower costs and reduced air pollution as key motivators for switching from gas-powered vehicles. This shift is not only urban; e-rickshaws have proliferated across rural areas, indicating a widespread electrification trend that outpaces China’s early adoption rates.
The acceleration is primarily cost-driven, as the economics of clean energy have transformed dramatically. In 2004, when China used a similar amount of energy per person, coal was about ten times cheaper than solar; today, solar energy plus storage costs half as much as new coal plants, according to Ember. Battery prices alone dropped 40% in 2024, making electrotech increasingly affordable and accessible, whereas fossil fuel technologies lack such steep cost-reduction potential.
Despite progress, India remains heavily reliant on coal, with plans to scale it up over the next two decades to meet soaring energy demand. However, even as coal consumption grows, it is roughly 40% of China’s levels at the same development stage, and oil demand for transport is about half per person. Experts note that while fossil fuels are not yet displaced from the grid, the cleaner trajectory could allow India to avoid the more pollutive path China took.
Energy independence is another motivator, as India imports close to 90% of its oil and half its gas, leaving it vulnerable to price shocks and geopolitical turmoil. Renewables offer a way to reduce this dependency, aligning with global trends where emerging economies seek alternatives to volatile fossil fuel markets. This shift is partly influenced by international politics, such as the U.S.’s transactional approach under President Donald Trump, which may push energy-importing nations towards cleaner, more self-sufficient options.
Challenges persist, including India’s dependence on China for critical minerals and electrotech supply chains. To counter this, India has launched initiatives like a national critical mineral mission and seen a 12-fold surge in solar module production over the past decade. Recent trade deals, such as one with the European Union, signal a growing demand for alternative partners amid concerns over Chinese monopolies and U.S. reliability.
The implications extend beyond India, offering a model for other emerging economies that can harness cheap wind and solar to power development without replicating the fossil-intensive phases of earlier industrializers. As Kingsmill Bond of Ember notes, India’s faster path to clean energy could inspire a broader global transition, positioning electrification as the cornerstone of future economic growth in a volatile world.
