Executive summary: In a move that could cripple Cuba’s already strained energy sector, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on January 29, 2026, imposing new tariffs on any country that supplies oil to the island nation. This decision comes amid a deepening crisis in Cuba, marked by frequent power outages and severe fuel shortages following the U.S. military’s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month. The executive order, described by the White House, authorizes additional duties on imports from nations that directly or indirectly provide oil to Cuba, citing the Cuban government as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security. Trump has repeatedly warned Cuba to “make a deal” and predicted its imminent failure, leveraging the cutoff of Venezuelan oil shipments that previously sustained Havana’s economy. This latest action is part of a broader U.S. campaign to pressure the communist-led government, which has been under a decades-long embargo.
Cuba’s energy crisis has been exacerbated by the loss of Venezuelan oil, which accounted for about one-third of its imports until Maduro’s capture on January 3. With Venezuela’s oil sector now under effective U.S. control, Trump has vowed that “no more oil or money” will flow to Cuba, leaving the island increasingly dependent on other suppliers like Mexico and Russia. The shortage has led to long lines at gas stations and widespread blackouts, fueling public anger and economic hardship.
Mexico, which supplies approximately 44 percent of Cuba’s oil, faces intense pressure from the Trump administration to halt shipments. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has given ambiguous responses, stating that state oil company Pemex had temporarily paused some deliveries but calling it a “sovereign decision” not influenced by U.S. demands. This hesitation highlights the diplomatic tightrope Mexico walks, balancing its solidarity with Cuba against the risk of economic retaliation from Washington.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez swiftly condemned Trump’s order as a “brutal act of aggression,” accusing the U.S. of spreading lies to justify its actions. In a social media post, Rodríguez emphasized that Cuba has endured over six decades of economic blockade and blamed the U.S. for regional instability. The Cuban government’s defiance underscores the escalating tensions, with both sides digging in for a prolonged confrontation.
The tariff threat also impacts other oil suppliers to Cuba, including Russia and Algeria, though to a lesser extent. According to reports, Russia provides about 10 percent of Cuba’s oil, but the overall reduction in imports has forced Cuba to ration electricity and fuel, affecting daily life and economic activity. The situation is particularly dire in Havana, where residents have reported multiple blackouts and shortages of essential goods.
Analysts warn that the new tariffs could further isolate Cuba and strain its already fragile economy, potentially leading to increased migration or social unrest. The U.S. strategy appears aimed at forcing political change in Havana, though officials have stated they seek negotiation rather than collapse. However, the immediate effect is a tightening of the noose around Cuba’s energy supplies, with no clear resolution in sight.
Looking ahead, the international community is watching closely as the U.S. flexes its economic muscle in Latin America. The outcome could redefine alliances in the region, with countries like Mexico caught between loyalty to neighbors and pragmatic relations with the U.S. For now, Cubans brace for more hardship, as the threat of tariffs adds another layer of uncertainty to their ongoing struggle against power outages and oil shortages.
