A new report from the Council on Criminal Justice reveals a dramatic 21% decrease in homicide rates across dozens of major U.S. cities from 2024 to 2025, with data suggesting this could be the lowest homicide rate in over a century. The decline is part of a broader trend where 11 of 13 crime categories saw reductions, indicating a significant shift in urban safety.
The analysis, released on January 22, 2026, examined crime data from 35 to 40 American cities that consistently report monthly figures. It found that homicides dropped by approximately 922 incidents last year, with nearly all cities in the sample recording decreases. Notable examples include Denver, Omaha, and Washington, D.C., where homicide rates fell by around 40%, showcasing substantial improvements in these metropolitan areas. In contrast, only a few cities experienced increases, such as Little Rock, Arkansas, which saw a 16% rise in homicides.
Beyond homicides, other violent crimes also declined significantly. Carjacking incidents plummeted by 61% since 2023, and aggravated assaults dropped by 9% in 2025. Property crimes showed similar positive trends, with motor vehicle thefts decreasing by 27% and shoplifting by 10% compared to the previous year. However, drug offenses increased by 7%, and sexual assault rates remained unchanged, pointing to areas where progress is still needed.
Experts attribute the overall decline to a combination of factors, including changes in criminal justice policies, economic conditions, and social behaviors post-pandemic. Adam Gelb, president of the Council on Criminal Justice, emphasized that “there’s never one reason crime goes up or down,” suggesting that national-level forces are influencing local outcomes. This perspective challenges the notion that specific local interventions are solely responsible for the drop.
The reduction in crime comes after a period of heightened violence during the COVID-19 pandemic, when homicide rates spiked dramatically. Since the peak in 2021, homicides have fallen by 44%, indicating a potential return to longer-term declining trends that were interrupted by the pandemic. Researchers like Ernesto Lopez note that this volatility is characteristic of homicide rates, which can swing widely from year to year.
Politically, both Democrats and Republicans have claimed credit for the decreasing crime rates, citing policies such as increased law enforcement presence or social programs. However, the report found that cities with varying approaches, including those without major policy shifts, experienced similar declines, complicating attribution. This has led to debates over the effectiveness of different strategies and the role of broader societal changes.
Looking forward, the findings suggest that while the current decline is encouraging, it is too early to declare long-term success. The Council on Criminal Justice calls for continued research to understand the underlying drivers and to ensure that the gains are sustained. With the FBI set to release comprehensive national data later this year, further insights will help shape future policy decisions aimed at maintaining public safety.
