Executive summary: ESPN senior NFL writer Bill Barnwell has released his detailed predictions for the 2026 NFL playoff bracket, highlighting the potential for underdog teams to advance deep into the postseason, including a scenario where two lower seeds could reach the Super Bowl. His analysis suggests a highly competitive and unpredictable playoff landscape this year.
In his annual playoff preview, Barnwell projects the outcomes of all 13 postseason games, starting with the wild-card weekend matchups. He notes that this season feels particularly wide-open, with several teams facing skepticism and top seeds not dominating as in past years. For instance, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks have their detractors, while the Los Angeles Rams, ranked high in ESPN’s Football Power Index, enter as the fifth seed in the NFC.
One of the key themes Barnwell explores is the performance of seventh seeds, which have historically struggled in the expanded playoff format. However, he points out that this year, teams like the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers are favored or competitive in their matchups despite lower seeding. This challenges conventional wisdom and sets the stage for potential upsets throughout the bracket.
Barnwell delves into specific game analyses, such as the Buffalo Bills versus Jacksonville Jaguars, which he labels the game of the weekend. He examines Trevor Lawrence’s recent form and Josh Allen’s health, predicting a high-scoring affair. Similarly, he breaks down the Houston Texans’ hot streak against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defensive strategy, emphasizing turnover battles and special teams play.
In the NFC, Barnwell focuses on the rivalry between the Packers and Chicago Bears, noting the Packers’ injury woes but their efficiency on offense. He predicts the Packers will overcome the Bears’ reliance on takeaways, thanks to Jordan Love’s return and the team’s low turnover rate. Other matchups, like the San Francisco 49ers versus Philadelphia Eagles, are also analyzed for their strategic nuances.
Looking ahead, Barnwell projects the divisional and conference championship rounds, considering how team matchups might evolve. He highlights factors like red-zone efficiency, quarterback play, and defensive adjustments that could sway games. His bracket culminates in a Super Bowl prediction, which he keeps under wraps but implies a surprising outcome given the parity this season.
Barnwell’s predictions are based on statistical models, historical data, and current team dynamics. He acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of playoff football, citing past anomalies like key injuries or controversial calls that can alter outcomes. Nonetheless, his analysis provides a framework for understanding the potential paths teams might take.
In conclusion, Barnwell’s bracket underscores the excitement and uncertainty of the 2026 NFL playoffs, with lower seeds poised to challenge traditional powerhouses. His insights offer fans a comprehensive look at what to expect as the postseason unfolds, from wild-card weekend to Super Bowl LX.
