Sheikh Hasina’s conviction for crimes against humanity has ignited a diplomatic crisis between India and Bangladesh, as New Delhi’s refusal to extradite the exiled former prime minister strains their historically close ties. The death sentence, handed down for her role in a violent crackdown on student protests, places India in a difficult position, balancing loyalty to an ally against growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh.
Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh for 15 years, was forced to flee to India in August 2024 after widespread demonstrations turned deadly, with estimates of nearly 1,400 killed. A special tribunal in Dhaka recently found her guilty and sentenced her to death, a move celebrated by her opponents but complicated by her sanctuary in New Delhi. India has shown no inclination to comply with Bangladesh’s extradition requests, citing the political nature of the case and historical ties.
The relationship between India and Bangladesh, once robust under Hasina’s leadership, is now under severe stress. India had prized Bangladesh for stability and alignment against China, with deep economic interdependencies including $13 billion in annual trade and Indian investments in infrastructure and energy. However, Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is actively rebalancing its foreign policy, canceling joint initiatives and seeking closer ties with China and Pakistan.
India faces a dilemma with few appealing options: extraditing Hasina is seen as unthinkable due to her long-standing friendship, while keeping her risks further alienating Dhaka. Experts like Michael Kugelman outline alternatives such as finding a third country for her asylum or pressing her to remain silent, but each carries significant diplomatic costs. The situation is exacerbated by public opinion in Bangladesh, where surveys show over 75% view China positively compared to just 11% for India.
Economically, the ties are too entrenched to easily sever, with Bangladesh dependent on Indian raw materials and transit routes. Despite political tensions, trade has continued to grow, highlighting the complex interdependence. Sanjay Bhardwaj, a professor at JNU, notes that while diplomatic relations fluctuate, economic and cultural bonds often endure beyond governmental changes.
The upcoming elections in Bangladesh, scheduled for early next year, could offer a path to recalibrate the relationship. An elected government might provide a more stable partner for India, but the Hasina issue will likely remain a point of contention. Avinash Paliwal of SOAS University suggests that India should engage quietly with all stakeholders, including the military, to manage the crisis without escalating tensions.
In the long term, the crisis underscores the challenges of India’s neighborhood policy, where strategic interests sometimes conflict with ethical considerations. The outcome will depend on whether Bangladesh’s next government can balance domestic politics with pragmatic foreign relations, and how India navigates its commitment to allies amid changing regional dynamics.
