A month into the 2025-26 NBA season, the Oklahoma City Thunder have emerged as the clear favorite to repeat as champions, while the league’s other 29 teams are categorized into six additional tiers based on their playoff and title prospects. This analysis, published by ESPN, provides a detailed breakdown of team standings and future outlooks as the campaign unfolds.
The evaluation, conducted by ESPN writers Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton, arrives as the season reaches its early stages, with divisional lines beginning to form in both conferences. They sort all 30 teams into seven distinct tiers, ranging from title contenders to those focused on the draft lottery, offering insights into each group’s strengths, weaknesses, and potential trajectories. This framework helps contextualize the competitive landscape amid ongoing games and player developments.
At the pinnacle, the Thunder stand alone in Tier 1 as the favorite to repeat, boasting a league-best 13-1 record and a historic plus-15.4 point differential. Despite injuries to key players like Jalen Williams and poor three-point shooting, Oklahoma City’s defense is overwhelmingly dominant, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his MVP-caliber play. Chet Holmgren’s offensive improvements, averaging 19.3 points per game, further cement their status, though their easy schedule to date may slightly inflate results.
Tier 2 comprises legitimate title contenders: the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers, all exceeding a 5% championship probability according to BPI metrics. The Rockets have surprised with strong performances despite Fred VanVleet’s injury, while the Nuggets pose the biggest threat to Oklahoma City in the West. The Cavaliers and Knicks remain top East contenders, relying on health returns and track records to sustain their pushes.
Five teams form Tier 3 as conference finals party crashers: the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, and Atlanta Hawks. Each excels on one end of the court but faces significant questions on the other; for instance, the Lakers’ offense thrives but their defense ranks poorly, and the Spurs and Pistons rely on young stars like Victor Wembanyama but lack consistent shooting. The Hawks have improved defensively in Trae Young’s absence but must reintegrate him without losing momentum.
In Tier 4, prospective contenders are stuck in neutral, including the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, and Orlando Magic. The Clippers have struggled with age and injuries, notably losing Bradley Beal for the season, while the Magic and Warriors aim to rebound into contention. Golden State has shown resilience with a recent winning streak, but consistency issues and opponent shooting luck have hampered their progress.
The muddled middle of Tier 5 features teams like the Portland Trail Blazers, Miami Heat, and Milwaukee Bucks, who could secure home-court advantage or miss the play-in entirely due to volatile performances. The East’s lack of separation means their fates are highly uncertain, though Giannis Antetokounmpo gives Milwaukee playoff upside. Portland, the sole Western team in this tier, benefits from a shaky conference bottom but lacks top-end talent for deeper runs.
Tier 6 consists of play-in dreamers, primarily in the West, such as the Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, and Phoenix Suns. The Suns have positive vibes with Devin Booker’s All-NBA play, while the Mavericks and Grizzlies face internal challenges like front-office changes and player dissatisfaction. At least one of these teams will likely make the postseason by default, but others may pivot to lottery pursuits.
Finally, Tier 7 includes the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, and Indiana Pacers, all positioning for high picks in a loaded 2026 draft. These teams are openly rebuilding, with the Jazz incentivized to lose enough to protect their draft pick from Oklahoma City. The draft’s potential stars, like Darryn Peterson, offer hope for franchise turnarounds, though lottery odds no longer guarantee top selections.
As the season progresses, these tiers will shift with injuries, trades, and performance trends, but for now, the Thunder’s dominance sets a high bar, and the analysis provides a clear snapshot of the NBA’s hierarchical structure.
