Executive summary: President Donald Trump’s central campaign pledge to immediately lower prices for Americans has yielded mixed outcomes after one year in office, with some costs rising due to tariffs and other economic factors, while others have seen decreases. Overall, the promise to tackle inflation has been only partially fulfilled, as prices for essentials like groceries and electricity have increased in many cases.
Trump made sweeping promises during the 2024 campaign, vowing to bring down prices “starting on Day One” and specifically targeting groceries, cars, and energy costs. Flanked by packaged foods at an August 2024 news conference, he declared, “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One,” tapping into voter concerns about the cost of living. However, official data shows that grocery prices have risen by 2.7% in the 12 months to September 2025, with sharp increases for items like coffee (18.9%), ground beef (12.9%), and bananas (6.9%). Apart from one recorded fall in April, grocery prices have risen each month since Trump took office in January 2025, according to BBC Verify.
Experts attribute these increases to various factors, including Trump’s tariff policies. Food economics professor David Ortega noted that a third of coffee consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil and is subject to a 50% tariff, driving up costs. Additionally, Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration may have impacted farming labor, with as many as 40% of workers estimated to be undocumented, leading to wage pressures that could raise prices. Diane Swonk, chief economist for KPMG, confirmed that tariff and immigration policy changes have contributed to inflation pressures, though weather events and other global factors also play a role. The White House has countered that the president does not control weather patterns and that coffee price hikes are a global phenomenon.
In contrast, some grocery items have decreased in price. For example, the cost of a dozen large eggs fell from a record high of $6.23 in March 2025 to $3.49 by September, following bird flu outbreaks earlier in the year. Other items like butter, margarine, ice cream, and frozen vegetables also saw slight declines. The White House has pointed to these reductions as evidence of Trump’s supply-side policies taming inflation, with spokesman Kush Desai stating, “President Trump’s supply-side policies are taming Joe Biden’s inflation crisis.” NBC News similarly reported that while inflation has cooled from 3% to 2.4% during Trump’s first 100 days, prices for many goods have continued to rise or stayed flat.
On energy, Trump promised to slash electricity prices by half within 12 to 18 months, but residential electricity rates have actually increased from 15.94 cents per kWh in January 2025 to 17.62 cents per kWh in August 2025. Professor James Sweeney from Stanford explained that this was technically impossible due to infrastructure costs and surging demand, largely driven by data centers for artificial intelligence. Cuts to renewable energy subsidies and tariffs on imported steel have further pushed up prices, exacerbating inequality as wealthier households can access alternatives like solar panels. The White House responded that Trump is expanding coal, natural gas, and nuclear power to meet growing energy demand and lower prices.
For automobiles, Trump extended his price reduction pledge to cars, yet the average price of a new car topped $50,000 for the first time in September 2025, up from $48,283 in January. Erin Keating of Cox Automotive cited tariffs as a key inflationary factor, contributing at least one percentage point to the annual price increase of about 4%. She warned that prices could rise further in 2026 as manufacturers adjust to tariff impacts, though tax breaks in Trump’s spending bill may incentivize purchases. The administration has defended its actions, claiming historic regulatory moves to reverse previous energy policies and save billions.
Gasoline prices have seen a modest decline, with the national average falling from $3.125 per gallon in January 2025 to $3.079 per gallon, but this remains far from Trump’s promise of “getting gasoline below $2 a gallon.” The White House referenced a gas price comparison website showing a lower average of $2.97 per gallon and emphasized efforts to unleash American energy production. Overall, the mixed results highlight the challenges of fulfilling campaign promises in a dynamic global economy, with economists noting the president’s limited control over short-term price movements. As Trump continues his term, the impact of his policies on household costs will remain a key issue for voters and analysts alike.