Wednesday, November 5, 2025
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Why the US government has shut down and what happens now

The United States government has been partially shut down since October 1, 2025, as Republican and Democratic lawmakers remain deadlocked over federal funding, leading to widespread disruptions in services and unpaid leave for hundreds of thousands of federal employees. This ongoing impasse, now stretching into its second month, marks one of the longest shutdowns in history and shows no immediate signs of resolution, with both parties entrenched in their positions over healthcare subsidies and budget cuts.

The shutdown began after Congress failed to pass a budget by the September 30 deadline, with Democrats insisting on extensions for Affordable Care Act subsidies that make health insurance cheaper for millions and reversals of Medicaid cuts, while Republicans pushed for a “clean” funding bill without additional provisions. In the US system, Congress must agree on a spending plan for the president to sign, but the Senate Republicans lack the 60 votes needed to pass it alone, giving Democrats leverage in negotiations. A stopgap bill passed in the House but stalled in the Senate, leading to the shutdown at midnight on October 1. Several votes to reopen the government have since failed, with Republicans arguing to handle healthcare issues separately and Democrats believing their stance is popular with voters.

Essential services like border protection, law enforcement, and in-hospital medical care continue, but non-essential functions are suspended, furloughing approximately 1.4 million federal employees or forcing them to work without pay. This has halted ongoing research at agencies like the National Institutes of Health and disrupted air travel due to shortages of air traffic controllers. Contractors not directly employed by the government are also missing work, exacerbating the economic toll. The Trump administration has shifted funds to pay troops temporarily, but House Speaker Mike Johnson warned this is not a long-term solution, and future military paychecks remain uncertain.

Critical social programs are severely affected, with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits not issued on November 1, impacting roughly 42 million low-income Americans. The Department of Agriculture cited a funding lapse, blaming Democrats for the impasse, though the administration later used emergency funds for partial coverage, setting up another potential crisis by December 1. Social Security and Medicare checks are still being distributed, but benefit verification and card issuance may be interrupted, and services like federally funded preschool and Smithsonian museums have been reduced or closed. National parks and monuments, including Alcatraz Island and the Washington Monument interior, have shut down, raising concerns about vandalism similar to past shutdowns.

The political standoff has intensified, with the House canceling votes for the fifth week in a row and the Senate repeatedly failing to advance bills to reopen the government. President Donald Trump has threatened to permanently fire “non-essential” workers and deny them backpay, a move criticized by Democrats like House leader Hakeem Jeffries, who insists the law entitles furloughed employees to retroactive pay. The administration’s attempt to lay off about 4,000 workers was temporarily blocked by a federal judge, but the White House is appealing, adding legal battles to the shutdown’s complexities. Both sides appear willing to endure public backlash, with Trump framing the shutdown as a means to reduce government size and Democrats holding firm on healthcare priorities.

Economically, the shutdown is estimated to cost the US economy $15 billion per week, reducing GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points weekly. Delays in loan approvals, permit reviews, and stock listing assessments are hampering business activity, while the suspension of key economic data releases, like the monthly jobs report, increases uncertainty for policymakers. Analysts worry that extending into the holiday season could amplify losses, as contractors—often small businesses—do not receive backpay and may struggle without other clients. Unlike past shutdowns, where economic impacts were temporary, this one’s prolonged nature and potential permanent workforce reductions could deepen and prolong the drag.

Historically, government shutdowns in the US have ended due to mounting public pressure, such as the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 that resolved after air traffic controllers called in sick, causing widespread flight disruptions. Similar patterns are emerging now, with airline workers protesting, but the current administration’s unconventional tactics, like accepting a $130 million donation for troop pay, introduce new variables. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the 2018-2019 shutdown caused $11 billion in economic losses, $3 billion of which was never recovered, highlighting the risks of a protracted standoff.

Looking ahead, the shutdown’s resolution hinges on a compromise in the Senate, where Democrats and Republicans must find common ground on healthcare and spending. External pressures, such as public outcry over missed SNAP benefits and federal paychecks, or disruptions in air travel, could force action. If no deal is reached, the economic and social impacts will worsen, potentially affecting the upcoming holiday economy and deepening political divisions. The outcome will set precedents for future budget negotiations and the balance of power in Washington, with implications for government efficiency and public trust.

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