The first College Football Playoff rankings for the 2025 season are set to be released on Tuesday, November 4, with analysts projecting Ohio State to lead the initial top 12 amid a competitive field vying for spots in the expanded playoff format. This projection comes as the selection committee prepares to unveil its first official ranking, setting the stage for the final push toward the national championship.
Ohio State is widely expected to claim the No. 1 position, backed by an undefeated record and a season-opening win over Texas. The Buckeyes have showcased dominance on both offense and defense, with key players like Jeremiah Smith contributing to a unit that has limited opponents to minimal scoring. Their resume includes impressive road victories against Washington and Illinois, bolstering their case for a top seed and a first-round bye in the playoff. Statistical metrics support Ohio State’s strength, as they entered the week leading in total efficiency, though Indiana’s comparable performance ensures a tight race for the top spot.
Indiana is projected to follow at No. 2, also undefeated and coming off a solid road win at Maryland. The Hoosiers boast one of the season’s most notable victories—a double-digit triumph at Oregon—which could sway committee discussions in their favor. Statistically, Indiana ranks high in efficiency and game control, mirroring Ohio State’s prowess, but their non-conference schedule lacks top-tier opponents, potentially keeping them just behind the Buckeyes. The committee will weigh these factors carefully, as head-to-head comparisons and common opponents like Illinois, where Indiana had a larger margin of victory, add complexity to the decision.
Alabama is anticipated to secure the No. 3 spot, despite an early loss to Florida State, thanks to key wins against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. The Crimson Tide’s defense has held up well against elite competition, and their strength of record metrics justify a high ranking. However, the loss to a struggling Florida State team remains a liability, opening the door for undefeated Texas A&M to challenge for this position. The debate between Alabama and Texas A&M highlights the committee’s focus on resume quality versus perfect records, with both teams likely to feature in the SEC championship conversation.
Texas A&M is likely to land at No. 4, with an unblemished record highlighted by a significant non-conference win at Notre Dame. The Aggies have demonstrated resilience, but their schedule strength is slightly inferior to Alabama’s, which could influence the final ordering. Key victories over LSU and Mississippi State support their case, though the committee may view LSU’s recent coaching changes as a mitigating factor. As front-runners for the SEC title game, both Alabama and Texas A&M’s positioning will have implications for playoff seeding and first-round matchups.
Georgia rounds out the top five, with only a narrow loss to Alabama marring their record. The Bulldogs have quality wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee, and their ability to perform in close games, such as a recent escape against Florida, keeps them in contention. Defensive inconsistencies have been a concern, but overall efficiency metrics and a strong strength of record uphold their ranking. Ole Miss follows at No. 6, with a resume that includes a road win at Oklahoma, though they trail Georgia due to the head-to-head loss, emphasizing the committee’s reliance on direct comparisons.
BYU, undefeated and leading the Big 12, is projected at No. 7, though concerns about their strength of schedule persist. The Cougars have wins against Utah and Iowa State, but games against lower-tier opponents like Portland State could dampen their appeal. Oregon, Texas Tech, and Notre Dame are among other teams expected in the top 12, each bringing unique strengths; for instance, Texas Tech’s road win at Utah and Notre Dame’s six-game winning streak after an 0-2 start illustrate the depth of the field. The committee’s evaluation will consider factors like head-to-head results, schedule strength, and performance in key moments.
As the rankings release approaches, these projections underscore the competitive landscape of college football, where every game can alter the playoff picture. The first official ranking will provide clarity on teams’ paths to the national championship, influencing strategies for the remaining regular-season contests. Fans and analysts alike await the reveal, which will not only set benchmarks but also fuel debates over the merits of undefeated records versus strength of schedule in the new 12-team era.