National security expert Josh Rogin recently analyzed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s views on Donald Trump, highlighting the complexities in US-China relations amid ongoing trade tensions and diplomatic shifts. Rogin’s assessment, featured in a CNN interview, suggests that Xi sees Trump as an unpredictable leader whose policies could both challenge and create opportunities for China’s global strategy.
The analysis emerges as the United States and China navigate a contentious trade relationship that began during Trump’s first term. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the trade war has involved reciprocal tariffs and export controls, with recent developments indicating a potential de-escalation. On October 26, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that negotiations had reached a ‘substantial framework’ during an ASEAN meeting in Kuala Lumpur, with China agreeing to delay and reexamine its export controls on critical minerals like rare earths.
Rogin’s insights point to Xi’s cautious approach, where Trump’s America-first stance is viewed as a double-edged sword. Xi likely perceives Trump’s unilateralist tendencies as a chance to bolster China’s influence in regions where US alliances may weaken, such as Southeast Asia and Europe. However, the volatility in Trump’s diplomacy also poses risks for China, which depends on stable international relations for its economic growth and technological advancement.
The US-China economic interdependence remains profound, with China being a major exporter to the US and holding significant US treasury bonds. Experts from sources like the CFR argue that complete decoupling is impractical, as both nations’ economies are deeply intertwined. The recent framework agreement reflects efforts to avoid further escalation, which could have widespread implications for global supply chains and economic stability.
In terms of national security, Rogin’s analysis touches on broader geopolitical risks, including potential miscalculations in flashpoints like the South China Sea or Taiwan. Trump’s past actions, such as threatening tariffs and challenging China’s core interests, have raised concerns about increased military tensions. Xi’s government is likely preparing for various scenarios, balancing between confrontation and cooperation.
The expert commentary underscores the importance of diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures between Washington and Beijing. As both leaders potentially gear up for future summits, the international community is closely monitoring their interactions, aware that the US-China relationship will significantly impact global security and economic order. Rogin’s assessment highlights the need for careful management to prevent conflicts and foster mutual understanding.
Looking ahead, the outcome of ongoing negotiations and any Trump-Xi meetings will be critical in shaping the trajectory of bilateral relations. Rogin’s analysis serves as a reminder that while tensions persist, there are avenues for dialogue that could lead to stabilized relations, benefiting not only the two superpowers but also the wider world.