Tropical Storm Melissa is rapidly intensifying over the Caribbean and is forecast to become a major hurricane, threatening Jamaica and Haiti with days of hurricane conditions, including life-threatening flooding and destructive winds.
As of early Friday, October 24, 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa was positioned approximately 150 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. The storm is moving slowly northward at just 3 miles per hour, allowing its outer bands to already affect Jamaica and western Haiti. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in place for these areas, indicating that hurricane-force winds are possible within the next 48 hours. Tragically, the Haitian Civil Protection Agency has confirmed at least three storm-related deaths in Haiti, highlighting the immediate dangers.
Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center expect Melissa to undergo rapid intensification, potentially reaching Category 4 strength or higher by Sunday. This explosive strengthening is driven by exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the Caribbean, which provide ample energy for the storm. Similar rapid intensification has been observed in other hurricanes this season, such as Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto, a trend linked to climate change.
The slow movement of Melissa is particularly alarming, as it will result in prolonged heavy rainfall over the same regions. Rainfall totals of 8 to 14 inches are forecast for southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Jamaica, with isolated amounts possibly exceeding a foot. This persistent deluge raises the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, especially in the steep terrain of these islands, which can act like a sponge to wring out even more moisture from the atmosphere.
In response, Jamaican authorities have activated emergency measures. All public hospitals are operating in “emergency mode,” suspending outpatient and elective procedures to prioritize emergency care. The country’s airports remain open for now but may close if a hurricane warning is issued. Officials are advising residents to prepare for widespread power outages, flooding, and hazardous marine conditions.
The mountainous geography of Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic exacerbates the flood threat by forcing air upward, leading to enhanced rainfall. This effect, combined with the storm’s slow pace, mirrors past disasters like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and Hurricane Dorian in 2019, which caused catastrophic flooding due to stationary heavy rain.
While the United States mainland is not expected to face a direct hit, indirect impacts such as rough surf and rip currents could reach the East Coast by next week. There is also a slight chance that Melissa could take a sharper turn north, potentially affecting eastern Cuba or the Bahamas before moving into the Atlantic.
As Melissa continues to intensify, Jamaica is bracing for what could be one of the most destructive hurricanes of the 2025 season. The extended duration of the event means that communities will endure multiple days of severe weather, complicating evacuation and relief efforts. The aftermath is likely to require significant recovery resources, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and preparedness.