Tropical Storm Melissa is slowly moving through the Caribbean and is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane, threatening catastrophic flooding and destructive winds in Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic due to its stagnant path over warm waters.
Currently, Melissa is drifting west at just 3 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph, positioned southeast of Jamaica. The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for parts of Haiti and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica, as the storm’s slow movement increases rainfall accumulation. Record-hot Caribbean waters are fueling potential rapid intensification, with predictions of it becoming a hurricane by the weekend and possibly a major hurricane early next week. This could make it the fourth intense hurricane this season, a rarity noted by climate researchers.
The primary danger lies in prolonged heavy rain, with forecasts of up to 10 inches widely and over a foot in some areas, leading to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Mountainous regions in Hispaniola and Jamaica will amplify rainfall through orographic lifting, similar to past disasters like Hurricane Helene. AccuWeather warns of an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 30 inches of rain in isolated spots, highlighting the extreme flood risk. Mudslides are almost certain in steep terrain, threatening communities and infrastructure.
Melissa’s track remains uncertain, trapped between weather systems, but two scenarios pose grave risks. A slow westward drift could allow it to strengthen into a Category 4 or 5 hurricane over open water, battering Jamaica and southern Haiti with high winds and surge. A quicker northward turn might bring it directly over Hispaniola, increasing flood threats despite lower wind intensities. Both outcomes ensure days of hazardous conditions, with model “spaghetti plots” showing a range of possible paths.
The storm’s behavior reflects broader climate trends, as warming oceans contribute to more frequent rapid intensification in hurricanes. This season, three other storms underwent similar explosive strengthening, and scientists link this to fossil fuel emissions. The Caribbean’s deep heat reservoir prevents normal cooling, allowing storms like Melissa to maintain or increase strength. These factors combine to create a “perfect storm” scenario, with vulnerable islands facing compounded threats.
While the U.S. is not expected to face a direct hit, Florida could experience rough seas, and the East Coast may see enhanced rainfall from interacting systems. Emergency responses are underway in the Caribbean, with authorities urging evacuations in flood-prone areas. The event highlights the need for robust disaster preparedness in an era of climate-amplified storms, with international monitoring and aid poised for activation if needed.