ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has unveiled its projections for the 2025-26 NBA season, providing detailed forecasts for 23 teams’ playoff chances and potential standings. The Oklahoma City Thunder are ranked as the top overall team, with strong contenders across both conferences signaling a highly competitive year ahead.
The Basketball Power Index, developed by ESPN Analytics, uses advanced metrics to predict team performance, incorporating factors like player net points, injury impacts, and historical trends. Unlike traditional win-loss projections, BPI offers probabilities for playoff seeding, conference finals appearances, and championship odds, giving a comprehensive view of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. This year’s model shows close alignment with betting markets but provides deeper insights, such as the Thunder’s 98% chance for a top-four seed in the West.
In the Western Conference, the Thunder lead with exceptional depth, as all rotation players contributed positively last season. The Denver Nuggets follow with a 67% probability for home-court advantage, bolstered by offseason acquisitions like Cam Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. The Houston Rockets, despite losing Fred VanVleet to injury, hold a 49% shot at a top-three seed, aided by Kevin Durant’s arrival. The LA Clippers, though veteran-heavy, have a 21% chance to reach the conference finals, while the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors complete the top six with solid playoff odds.
Play-in contenders in the West include the Memphis Grizzlies, with a 51% playoff probability despite Ja Morant’s injury history, and the Los Angeles Lakers, who have a 70% chance to avoid the play-in even with LeBron James sidelined until mid-November. The Dallas Mavericks’ prospects depend on rookie Cooper Flagg’s immediate impact, potentially elevating them to a higher seed. The San Antonio Spurs, led by Victor Wembanyama, face a 50-50 playoff chance, with concerns over his health and turnover rates.
In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers top the rankings with a 51% chance of making the conference finals, relying heavily on Donovan Mitchell’s performance. The New York Knicks are nearly certain for a top-six seed at 95%, driven by Jalen Brunson’s clutch play. The Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks follow, with the Hawks projected to improve defensively thanks to Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Philadelphia 76ers have a 90% playoff probability if Joel Embiid plays around 64 games, though his recent dip in form is a concern.
The Detroit Pistons, after a dramatic win increase, are expected to maintain 44 wins with Cade Cunningham’s growth. Play-in battles are likely for the Milwaukee Bucks, skeptical due to roster changes, and the Boston Celtics, who may struggle offensively without Jayson Tatum. The Indiana Pacers, without Tyrese Haliburton, have a 36% playoff chance, while the Toronto Raptors are probable play-in participants. High-variance teams like the Portland Trail Blazers could surprise if Deni Avdija continues his strong form, and the Chicago Bulls’ hopes hinge on Josh Giddey’s consistency.
As the NBA season approaches, BPI’s forecasts set expectations, but factors like injuries, rookie performances, and team chemistry will ultimately shape outcomes. These predictions provide a foundation for analysis, highlighting key players and teams to watch in a season full of potential surprises.