Iran is facing unprecedented anti-government protests that have escalated into a potential existential threat to the Islamic Republic, with U.S. President Donald Trump claiming to have received assurances from Tehran that the killing of protesters has stopped, temporarily easing international tensions. The protests, sparked by economic woes, have drawn a brutal crackdown from the regime, including lethal force, mass arrests, and an internet blackout, while internal divisions and Kurdish militant activity further strain the state.
The unrest began in late December 2025 as merchants and shopkeepers in Tehran demonstrated against deteriorating economic conditions, but it quickly spread nationwide, evolving into broader anti-regime sentiment. Participants now include students, workers, and citizens from various provinces, with reports of violent resistance in cities like Shiraz, where protesters have used knives and machetes against security forces.
In response, the Iranian regime has deployed security forces on an unprecedented scale, viewing the protests as a proto-revolution that must be crushed immediately. According to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, the regime has abandoned any distinction between economic grievances and anti-regime actions, categorically labeling protesters as ‘terrorists’ and intensifying its use of violence.
Casualty estimates vary widely, with some regime officials leaking figures as high as 12,000 deaths, while others cite numbers between 2,000 and 3,000, including hundreds of security personnel. Amnesty International has condemned ‘unlawful killings on an unprecedented scale,’ and the ongoing internet shutdown, now in its eighth day, is exacerbating economic hardship and hindering communication.
Internationally, Trump’s involvement has added volatility, as he previously threatened military strikes if Iran escalated violence against protesters. However, he recently stated that he has been assured by ‘very important sources’ in Tehran that the killing has ceased and no executions are planned, leading to a temporary pullback from strike threats and a slight drop in global oil prices.
The regime’s crackdown is straining its security forces, with reports of exhaustion and potential defections, while cross-border Kurdish militant attacks in western Iran divert resources and complicate internal security. The regime is also coordinating with Turkey and Iraq to contain Kurdish activity, highlighting the multifaceted nature of the crisis.
Looking ahead, the sustainability of the protests and the regime’s stability will depend on factors such as the loyalty of security forces, economic impacts from the internet shutdown, and international pressure. The UN Security Council is set to meet, and the G7 has threatened additional sanctions, underscoring global concern over human rights abuses and regional stability.
In conclusion, Iran’s latest unrest represents a severe test for the Islamic Republic, combining domestic resistance, international scrutiny, and internal divisions into a precarious situation that could reshape the country’s political landscape in the coming weeks.
