Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has embarked on a high-stakes visit to China, seeking to repair years of diplomatic strain and diversify Canada’s trade relationships amid ongoing tensions with the United States.
Carney arrived in Beijing this week, marking the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017. His agenda includes meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji, and President Xi Jinping, with discussions centered on trade, agriculture, and international security. Senior officials have described the trip as “consequential and historic,” part of a plan to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports over the next decade.
A primary goal for Canada is to address Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola, imposed in retaliation for Canadian levies on Chinese electric vehicles. These agricultural tariffs have significantly impacted farmers in Saskatchewan and other prairie provinces. In parallel, China has expressed a desire for Canada to lift its EV tariffs, which were established to align with U.S. policies and protect the North American auto sector.
The visit represents an attempt to reset relations that hit a low in 2018 after the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver, which led to China detaining two Canadians on espionage charges. All three were released in 2021, but distrust has lingered. More recently, a public inquiry found China to be a major player in foreign interference in Canada, though its impact on elections was deemed minimal.
Economically, Carney aims to reduce Canada’s heavy reliance on the United States, its largest trading partner. With U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors still in place, and talks to renew the North American free trade agreement pending, diversification is crucial. Canada sees China as a key market for expanding exports of petroleum, liquefied natural gas, and other goods.
Geopolitically, the visit requires a delicate balance. Canada must navigate its close ties with the U.S., particularly under the Trump administration, which has been critical of Chinese trade practices. China, through state media like Global Times, has urged Canada to exercise “strategic autonomy” and distance itself from U.S. influence. Experts warn that any deals struck could be closely monitored by Washington.
Risks abound, including concerns about foreign interference and the need for safeguards at home. Former national security analyst Dennis Molinaro emphasized that protective measures, such as a foreign agency registry, should be in place before re-engagement. However, Michael Kovrig, one of the Canadians detained by China, views the visit positively, advocating for open communication channels to manage disputes effectively.
The outcome of Carney’s mission will have significant implications for Canada’s future. Success could pave the way for increased trade and a more stable relationship with China, reducing economic vulnerability. Failure might exacerbate tensions and complicate relations with both China and the U.S. As Carney engages in talks, the world watches how Canada manages this pivotal moment in its foreign policy.
