ESPN analyst Bill Connelly provides a detailed analysis of the College Football Playoff semifinals, highlighting Miami’s thrilling 31-27 victory over Ole Miss and previewing the upcoming Indiana-Oregon matchup. His breakdown, published on January 9, 2026, captures the key moments and implications of these critical games.
In the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Miami and Ole Miss engaged in a back-and-forth thriller that saw four lead changes in the fourth quarter alone. Carson Beck’s 3-yard touchdown run with 18 seconds left sealed the win for the Hurricanes, sending them to their first national championship game in 23 years. Despite controlling time of possession and converting 11 of 19 third downs, Miami struggled with penalties and missed opportunities, including dropped interceptions that kept Ole Miss in the contest.
Key plays defined the dramatic semifinal. Ole Miss struck first with Kewan Lacy’s 73-yard touchdown burst in the second quarter, but Miami responded with a 52-yard touchdown pass from Beck to Keelan Marion. Lucas Carneiro’s field goals, including a 58-yarder, kept the Rebels close, while Malachi Toney’s 36-yard screen pass touchdown gave Miami a late lead before Ole Miss briefly reclaimed it with a Trinidad Chambliss-to-Dae’Quan Wright touchdown pass.
Player performances were pivotal. Beck led Miami with clutch drives, finishing with critical third-down conversions. Mark Fletcher Jr. rushed for 133 yards, and Marion emerged as a secret weapon with 114 receiving yards. For Ole Miss, Chambliss threw for 277 yards and a touchdown, while Lacy rushed for 103 yards on just 11 carries despite a hamstring injury. The Rebels’ defense, featuring Suntarine Perkins’ 1.5 sacks, made stops but couldn’t prevent the final drive.
The loss ends a remarkable Ole Miss season that overcame coaching turmoil and adversity. With stars like Chambliss and Lacy potentially returning, the team is battle-hardened for future success under Pete Golding. Miami, meanwhile, advances with resilience, having won close games against Texas A&M, Ohio State, and now Ole Miss, showcasing improved execution under pressure.
The second semifinal in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl features Indiana and Oregon, a rematch with high stakes. According to CBS Sports coverage, the game is set for Friday evening, with Indiana favored in some predictions due to their strong season and offensive firepower. This matchup adds to the playoff’s novelty, as both teams are among the new bloods challenging traditional powers.
Connelly’s analysis emphasizes the playoff’s evolution, with three first-time semifinalists injecting freshness into college football. This shift reflects broader changes in the sport, where expanded formats and transfer portals have leveled the playing field. The increased viewership and competitive games highlight the playoff’s growing appeal and unpredictability.
As the playoff progresses, the outcomes will shape the national championship and influence recruiting and team dynamics. Miami awaits the winner of Indiana-Oregon, with Connelly’s insights underscoring the strategies and key factors that could crown the next champion. The semifinals have set the stage for an exciting conclusion to the college football season.
