Voters in Guinea and the Central African Republic are casting ballots in pivotal presidential elections on Sunday, where incumbent leaders—a military general in Guinea and a mathematician in CAR—are poised to secure extended terms, highlighting ongoing challenges to democratic norms in the region.
In Guinea, General Mamadi Doumbouya, who led a coup in September 2021 that ousted President Alpha Condé, is the frontrunner in the presidential race. Despite facing eight challengers, Doumbouya has dominated the campaign, with his image plastered across the capital, Conakry. The exclusion of prominent opposition figure Cellou Dalein Diallo has limited political choice, but the return to an elected government is welcomed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has faced setbacks from other military regimes in the region.
In the Central African Republic, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a mathematician and former university vice-chancellor, is seeking a third term after pushing through a constitutional referendum that abolished presidential term limits. His main challenger is Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, although much of the opposition is boycotting the election, calling it a ‘sham’. CAR has been marred by chronic instability since 2013, with rebel groups controlling parts of the country, and Touadéra has relied on Russian mercenaries and UN peacekeepers to maintain security.
Touadéra’s rule has seen mixed results; he has spearheaded some infrastructure development, such as new roads, but the economy remains stagnant, with over 60% of the population living in poverty. His adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in 2022 was short-lived, and the country still grapples with limited internet access and electricity. The election is also the first in 40 years to include local polls, adding to logistical challenges.
Doumbouya, in contrast, has maintained good relations with Western governments, particularly France, unlike neighboring juntas that have aligned with Russia. He has pursued a methodical constitutional review to legitimize his rule, which has been treated gently by international actors despite human rights concerns, including the detention of activists and shootings of protesters.
The elections come at a time of regional turmoil, with coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and an attempted putsch in Benin. Guinea’s decision to stay in ECOWAS and restore civilian rule is seen as a step towards reconsolidating normality, while CAR’s fragile peace process continues with recent accords with rebel groups.
Outcomes are expected to solidify the incumbents’ power, with Doumbouya likely to win outright and Touadéra favored to secure another term. However, both countries face ongoing issues: CAR with persistent conflict and poverty, and Guinea with questions about long-term democratic integrity. International partners are cautiously supportive, prioritizing stability over strict adherence to democratic principles in these volatile contexts.
These parallel elections underscore the complex dynamics of power consolidation in Africa, where leaders use constitutional changes and military might to extend their rule, with global powers navigating strategic interests amid democratic backsliding.
