2026 is poised to be a critical year for global power dynamics, with multiple inflection points from Venezuela to Taiwan shaping international relations and security. Analyst Brett H. McGurk highlights seven key areas where decisions and events could redefine U.S. leadership and global stability in the coming year.
In Venezuela, the Trump administration has deployed the largest naval force in the Caribbean since the Cold War, aiming to pressure Nicolás Maduro’s regime through a blockade and strikes against drug traffickers. This “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine signals a more assertive U.S. role in the hemisphere, with Maduro’s fate in 2026 likely to determine the policy’s credibility and whether Trump is seen as a hemispheric hegemon.
The war in Ukraine enters its fifth year with no clear end in sight, as Vladimir Putin continues to escalate despite heavy casualties. The U.S. under Trump is pursuing a peace deal that might involve territorial concessions, but the outcome could hinge more on political decisions in Washington than battlefield developments, making 2026 a potential tipping point.
Taiwan remains a flashpoint, with Trump approving a massive arms sale while preparing for a summit with China’s Xi Jinping. The U.S. faces a dilemma between upholding traditional support for Taiwan and potentially ceding influence in the region, with the island’s semiconductor industry adding economic stakes to security concerns amid China’s military preparations.
Israel is heading toward pivotal elections in 2026, which could determine its ability to capitalize on military successes against Hamas and Hezbollah. A more stable government might enable expanded diplomatic agreements, such as with Saudi Arabia, while continued political fragmentation could stall progress and forfeit a historic opportunity.
Iran is in a weakened position after a year of setbacks, including the loss of key leaders and proxies, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei aging and ill. The country faces internal unrest and potential external strikes, making 2026 a year of uncertainty that could see the regime lash out or teeter further.
Terrorism is resurgent, with recent attacks in Australia and plots in the U.S. highlighting renewed threats from groups like ISIS. McGurk warns that counterterrorism efforts must be strengthened to prevent a return to high violence levels, emphasizing the need for international law enforcement cooperation.
Artificial intelligence is at the forefront of global competition, with China challenging U.S. dominance through models like DeepSeek R1. Issues such as export controls, data center capacity, and domestic policy debates will shape the technological landscape in 2026, influencing economic and military power amid growing geopolitical rivalry.
Together, these issues underscore why 2026 could be a hinge year, with decisions made in the coming months having lasting impacts on global order, security, and the trajectory of major powers.
