The 2025 NFL playoff race intensified as Week 16 concluded, with multiple teams clinching postseason spots and setting the stage for a dramatic final week of the regular season. Updated odds and seeds reveal tight battles for division titles and wild-card positions, while the draft order for non-playoff teams begins to take shape.
In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks (12-3) hold the top seed with a 47% chance to maintain it, per The Athletic’s playoff predictor, after clinching a playoff berth. The Chicago Bears (11-4) secured their spot and control the NFC North with an 89% probability, while the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) repeated as NFC East champions. The Carolina Panthers (8-7) surged into first place in the NFC South with a 49% shot at the division, but face a crucial finale against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8), who still have a 51% chance. The San Francisco 49ers (11-4) and Los Angeles Rams (11-4) are locked in a tight race for the NFC West, with the 49ers having a 28% probability for the No. 1 seed.
The AFC picture sees the Denver Broncos (12-3) leading with a 46% chance at the top seed, but they must navigate a tough final stretch to clinch the AFC West. The New England Patriots (12-3) punched their playoff ticket and have an 82% likelihood to win the AFC East, while the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) are firmly in control of the AFC South at 82%. The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) dominate the AFC North with a 91% probability, and the Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) and Buffalo Bills (11-4) have secured spots but face uphill battles for higher seeds. The Houston Texans (10-5) are near locks for the playoffs but trail in the division race.
Clinching scenarios abound in Week 17: for example, the Seahawks can secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win combined with specific outcomes from the Rams and 49ers-Bears game. In the AFC, the Broncos can clinch the top seed with a win and losses or ties from the Chargers, Patriots, Bills, and Jaguars. These scenarios highlight the high stakes as teams jockey for home-field advantage and byes.
Updated odds from sources like Yahoo Sports and CBS Sports show shifting probabilities, with the Rams’ chances for the NFC’s top seed dropping to 12% after Week 16, and the Indianapolis Colts (8-7) clinging to a mere 2% playoff hope. The draft order for non-playoff teams is crystallizing, with eliminated squads like the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) and Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) positioning for higher picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, adding another layer of intrigue to the season’s end.
Key matchups in Week 17 will decide fates: the Seahawks visit the Panthers, the Bears face the 49ers, and the Broncos take on the Chiefs. Injuries and suspensions, such as the Chargers’ Denzel Perryman’s two-game ban, could impact outcomes. Fans can expect a thrilling conclusion as teams like the Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) and Detroit Lions (8-7) fight for the final NFC wild-card spots.
As the regular season winds down, the playoff picture promises last-minute drama, with every game carrying weight for seeding, draft positioning, and legacy. The updated odds and scenarios provide a clear roadmap, but on-field performances will ultimately determine who advances to the postseason and who begins planning for the future.
