Iraq is confronting its most severe drought in nearly a century, prompting the government to strike a contentious oil-for-water deal with Turkey in a bid to alleviate the escalating water crisis. This agreement, which uses Iraq’s oil revenues to finance Turkish-built water infrastructure, has ignited debates over national sovereignty and the commodification of a vital resource.
The crisis stems from a combination of climate change, upstream dam construction by neighboring countries, and decades of domestic mismanagement. The Tigris and Euphrates rivers, once symbols of abundance, have seen their flows reduced by up to 30-40% since the 1980s, according to FAO reports. This has led to plummeting agricultural production, with wheat and barley yields dropping by 30-40% in recent drought years, and has forced thousands of farmers to abandon their livelihoods.
In response, Iraq and Turkey formalized the Water Cooperation Framework Agreement in November 2025. Under this multi-billion-dollar deal, Turkish companies will construct water harvesting dams and land reclamation projects in Iraq, funded through a mechanism where Iraq sells oil daily and deposits the proceeds into a dedicated fund. Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s adviser Torhan al-Mufti, have hailed the pact as a “clear and binding mechanism” for water sustainability, ensuring continuous flow based on Iraq’s needs.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan framed the initiative as mutually beneficial, emphasizing support for Iraq’s security and development. However, the deal has faced sharp criticism from water experts and politicians within Iraq. Shurook Alabayachi, a water policy expert, argues that water should not be tied to oil revenues, calling instead for a sovereign, long-term water policy aligned with international principles.
Skeptics like Natasha Hall of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warn that the arrangement could weaken Iraq’s control over its resources, giving Turkey undue leverage. Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute notes that the deal aligns with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s goals of expanding regional influence and securing energy alternatives, such as substituting Russian oil with Iraqi crude.
On the ground, the human toll is stark. Over 168,000 people have been displaced by climate-related pressures, and farmers like Ahmed al-Jash’ami and Hussam Anizan have seen their orchards wither and been forced into new jobs. Their stories highlight the daily struggle for survival amid water shortages, with many blaming government corruption and inefficiency for deepening the crisis.
The broader regional context complicates matters further. Iran’s rapid dam construction along shared borders has exacerbated Iraq’s water scarcity, while Turkey’s upstream projects continue to restrict flows. Iraq’s accession to the UNECE Water Convention in 2023 offers a potential avenue for mediated, binding agreements, but progress has been slow due to geopolitical tensions and lack of coordination.
Looking ahead, the oil-for-water deal represents a high-stakes gamble for Iraq. While it may provide short-term relief, experts urge comprehensive reforms, including modernizing irrigation, rehabilitating infrastructure, and strengthening water diplomacy. The cost of inaction, as researcher Dunia Kemal Beg Baban notes, could be measured in lost water, eroded public trust, and weakened national stability, making urgent action imperative for Iraq’s future.
