Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano is on the verge of another eruption, with recent lava overflows and heightened seismic activity indicating the potential for episode 37 in a series that began in December 2024. The U.S. Geological Survey has issued a volcano watch, forecasting the new eruption could occur within the next few days, raising alerts for volcanic hazards in the region.
Over the past weekend, periodic dome fountain overflows from the south vent of Kilauea’s summit occurred approximately once per hour, each lasting 30-40 minutes, with the last overflow ceasing at 12:10 a.m. on November 24. A total of 73 overflows have been recorded since they began on Friday morning, alternating between vents initially but primarily from the south vent since Friday evening. Despite the cessation of overflows, strong glow and intermittent spatter continued overnight, and both vents emitted visible gas plumes, with sulfur dioxide levels fluctuating.
USGS models, updated after minor deflationary events over the weekend, now predict that episode 37 is most likely to occur between November 25 and November 28, with a slight possibility on November 24. Inflation at the summit has resumed, and seismic tremor, though low, shows signs of gas pistoning behavior, suggesting magma movement. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is closely monitoring tiltmeters and other instruments for precursors.
This ongoing eruptive sequence started in December 2024, with episode 36 on November 9 being particularly notable. During that five-hour eruption, south vent fountains reached about 1,200 feet high, north vent fountains about 750 feet, and the combined output covered nearly 80% of the Halemaʻumaʻu crater floor with an estimated 11 million cubic yards of lava. The average eruption rate was over 600 cubic yards per second, demonstrating the volcano’s powerful activity.
Hazards associated with the eruption include high concentrations of volcanic gases like sulfur dioxide, which can form vog downwind and pose respiratory risks. Pele’s hair and other tephra, such as volcanic ash and pumice, can be carried long distances by wind, potentially falling on Highway 11 and causing irritation or water contamination. The area around the caldera remains closed due to instability and rockfall risks.
Authorities, including Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park and civil defense agencies, are maintaining safety measures and providing regular updates. The park’s closed areas help mitigate risks, and the public is urged to stay informed through official channels and avoid hazardous zones.
The imminent eruption underscores the need for continuous monitoring and research into Kilauea’s behavior. Each episode provides valuable data for improving volcanic hazard forecasts and preparedness, not only in Hawaii but globally. As scientists await the next development, the community remains vigilant, highlighting the dynamic interplay between natural forces and human resilience.
