The 2026 NFL Draft is already generating buzz as a five-team race for the No. 1 overall pick emerges midway through the 2025 season, with the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, and Las Vegas Raiders all holding substantial chances to land the top selection according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. This early speculation highlights the struggles of these franchises and sets the stage for a pivotal offseason that could reshape their futures.
The Titans currently lead the pack with the best odds at the No. 1 pick, sporting a 1-9 record and facing the remainder of the season with one of the easier schedules ahead. Their biggest needs include edge rusher, cornerback, and wide receiver, as the team has failed to score more than 22 points in any game this year. Potential prospects like Miami defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. are being eyed as fits, given his ability to bolster a pass rush that ranks 22nd in the league. With quarterback Cam Ward entrenched as the starter, Tennessee could use the top pick to trade down for additional assets or select the best available non-QB to build around him.
In Cleveland, the Browns hold the third overall pick in current projections and face quarterback uncertainties with Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders failing to secure the role long-term. Their 2-8 record and 26.9% chance at No. 1 underscore a season of offensive struggles, where the team ranks near the bottom in passing yards. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a top prospect consideration, offering accuracy and poise that could address Cleveland’s QB woes. The Browns’ other needs include offensive tackle and interior offensive line, essential for protecting any future signal-caller.
The New York Jets, with a 13.3% FPI chance at the top pick, are in a similar QB quandary after benching Justin Fields and turning to Tyrod Taylor. Ranking last in passing offense, the Jets’ primary focus is quarterback, but they also need help at cornerback and wide receiver. Prospects like Dante Moore might align with their scheme due to his mobility, though Mendoza’s experience makes him a contender. With multiple first-round picks in the coming years, New York has flexibility to either draft a QB or trade the pick for a veteran solution.
New Orleans sits with a 9.7% chance at No. 1, aided by the easiest remaining schedule, which could affect their draft position. The Saints’ biggest needs are interior offensive line and edge rusher, following trades and impending free agents. If they stick with quarterback Tyler Shough, they might target a defensive playmaker like Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, who offers versatility as a hybrid defender. Alternatively, they could trade the pick to accumulate more draft capital for a broader rebuild.
Las Vegas rounds out the five-team race with a 7.0% chance, highlighting issues at quarterback and pass rush beyond Maxx Crosby. The Raiders’ needs include cornerback, wide receiver, and offensive tackle, with Geno Smith’s future uncertain. Prospects that fit their profile could address these gaps, but the top pick might be used to secure a franchise QB if available. Their remaining schedule includes winnable games that could shift their draft standing.
As the season progresses, the draft order will evolve, influencing team strategies for the offseason. The race for No. 1 not only affects these five teams but also sets the tone for the entire draft, with potential trades and prospect evaluations heating up. Fans and analysts will closely watch how these franchises navigate their challenges, with the 2026 draft offering a chance for renewal and competitive resurgence.
