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Viktor Orban’s dilemma – Russian oil or Trump’s favour

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is meeting US President Donald Trump at the White House on Friday, seeking an exemption from American sanctions on Russian oil imports while attempting to broker a potential summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest.

The high-stakes visit comes amid escalating tensions over Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian energy, with the United States recently imposing sanctions on major Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft. Orban, who has long positioned himself as a key ally of Trump in Europe, now finds himself at odds with the US administration over energy policy, even as he seeks to leverage their relationship for domestic political gain ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections in April.

Hungary receives approximately 80% of its oil through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, a dependency that Orban has defended as economically necessary for the landlocked nation. The Hungarian government argues that alternative supply routes are more expensive and that its refineries are specifically configured to process Russian Urals crude. However, the US has been pressuring European allies to cut energy ties with Moscow as part of broader efforts to pressure Russia over its war in Ukraine.

Orban’s visit also aims to resurrect plans for a Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, which was unexpectedly cancelled by the White House last month after months of secret preparations. The Hungarian prime minister had hoped to host the two leaders as a demonstration of his international stature, potentially boosting his re-election campaign. Despite the cancellation, Orban and Kremlin officials have suggested the summit could still occur, though US officials have been dismissive of the prospect.

Domestically, Orban faces an unprecedented challenge from the rising opposition Tisza party led by Peter Magyar, with recent opinion polls showing his Fidesz party trailing. The White House meeting is being heavily promoted in Hungarian media as evidence of Orban’s global influence, with his government bringing a 180-strong delegation including ministers, business leaders, and pro-Orbán influencers.

The energy dispute highlights broader tensions in US-Hungary relations, with American officials noting that other landlocked nations like the Czech Republic have successfully transitioned away from Russian oil. The Czech government invested in pipeline improvements and refinery adaptations, completely ending Russian oil imports by April 2025 without significant consumer price increases, undermining Hungary’s claims that such a transition is impossible.

As Orban prepares for his meeting with Trump, observers are watching closely to see whether the US president will maintain his tougher stance on Russian energy or grant Hungary special treatment. The outcome could signal the administration’s commitment to enforcing sanctions globally and might influence other nations still dependent on Russian resources. For Orban, the visit represents a critical moment to demonstrate his diplomatic prowess to Hungarian voters while navigating the complex dynamics between Washington and Moscow.

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