US President Donald Trump has hinted at a potential visit to India next year while expressing optimism about ongoing high-stakes trade deal negotiations, signaling a possible thaw in relations strained by disputes over energy imports. His comments at a White House press briefing on Thursday underscored progress in talks and praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, amid efforts to conclude an agreement this fall.
Speaking to reporters, Trump described trade discussions with India as “going good” and called Modi a “friend” and “great man,” while reiterating claims that India has largely halted oil purchases from Russia. The president’s remarks come as both nations work to finalize a deal that could reshape economic ties, with previous targets to more than double bilateral trade from $190 billion in 2024 to $500 billion. This potential agreement addresses various sectors, but energy cooperation remains a central issue, reflecting broader strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trade talks had stalled after Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods in August, including a 25% penalty targeting purchases of Russian oil and arms, which the US alleges funds Moscow’s war in Ukraine—a charge India denies. Despite these tensions, negotiations have resumed, with officials from both sides indicating a willingness to compromise. The tariffs were part of a broader US strategy to reduce global reliance on Russian energy, but India has defended its imports as necessary for economic stability.
India, as a major energy importer, argues that buying discounted Russian crude is essential to protect millions of citizens from rising costs, and officials have pointed to ongoing European oil trade with Russia as evidence of selective targeting. Government spokespersons have acknowledged ongoing dialogues with the US on deepening energy cooperation, including potential increases in purchases of American oil and gas. Recent data shows Russian oil made up 35-40% of India’s imports in 2024, up from just 3% in 2021, highlighting the complexity of balancing economic needs with diplomatic pressures.
In October, preliminary shipping reports indicated a slight rise in India’s Russian oil imports, but major refiners in India and China have since reduced purchases due to fresh US sanctions on Russian producers, leading to steep price discounts. This shift illustrates the impact of American policy on global markets, with India remaining the second-largest importer of Russian crude after China. The situation underscores the delicate balance Delhi must strike between affordable energy and aligning with US foreign policy objectives.
The trade discussions unfold amid uncertainty over Trump’s participation in the Quad Summit, which India is scheduled to host later this year. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, involving Japan, Australia, the US, and India, aims to boost prosperity and security in the Indo-Pacific, but exact dates for the 2025 gathering remain unconfirmed. Trump’s potential visit could coincide with this event, further cementing bilateral ties and addressing shared concerns about regional stability, including countering Chinese influence.
Beyond trade, the US has pushed India to diversify its energy sources, with an Indian government spokesman noting Washington’s interest in deepening cooperation. Trump has emphasized frequent communication with Modi, highlighting a personal rapport that may facilitate negotiations. Until recently, the US was India’s largest trading partner, and both leaders have publicly committed to strengthening relations, suggesting a mutual desire to overcome past disagreements.
Looking ahead, the hinted visit and progressing trade talks indicate a positive trajectory for US-India relations, though challenges remain in reconciling differing stances on energy and tariffs. Observers will monitor whether a deal can be sealed this fall, potentially paving the way for increased collaboration on security and economic initiatives. The outcome will not only affect bilateral trade but also influence broader geopolitical dynamics in Asia, as both nations navigate their roles in a rapidly evolving global landscape.