As Gaza emerges from a fragile ceasefire, the colossal effort to rebuild the war-torn territory is stalled by deep divisions over control and vision, with competing plans from Palestinians, the US, and Arab states highlighting the political and humanitarian challenges.
On the ground, Gazans like Abu Iyad Hamdouna confront the devastation, pointing to mangled heaps of concrete and steel that were once homes in neighborhoods like Sheikh Radwan. Bulldozers are clearing roads amid mountains of rubble, but the scale is overwhelming, with the UN estimating £53 billion in damages and nearly 300,000 houses damaged or destroyed. The Strip is littered with 60 million tonnes of debris, mixed with unexploded bombs and human remains, and over 68,000 people have been killed, according to Hamas-run health authorities.
Amid the ruins, multiple reconstruction plans have surfaced, each reflecting different agendas. The Phoenix plan, developed by 700 Palestinian experts, aims to restore Gaza’s social and geographical fabric through community-led efforts, emphasizing local ownership. In stark contrast, US-led proposals like President Trump’s “Gaza Riviera” envision a high-tech, Dubai-style transformation under international trusteeship, while the leaked GREAT plan suggests AI-powered smart cities and voluntary relocation for a quarter of Gaza’s population.
These foreign visions clash with local aspirations, as Hamas-appointed mayor Yahya al-Sarraj advocates for Palestinian autonomy, skeptical of externally imposed schemes. The Palestinian Authority has its own proposal to reconnect Gaza with the West Bank, focusing on preserving refugee camps as tight-knit communities, but its authority does not extend to Gaza currently. This fragmentation exacerbates tensions, with Israel opposing PA involvement and Hamas retaining influence.
Political obstacles are a major barrier, as the current Israeli government rejects a Palestinian state, and international donors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE demand guarantees against future conflict before committing funds. The Trump ceasefire plan includes a Board of Peace to oversee redevelopment, but agreement on governance remains elusive, stalling the release of billions in aid.
Funding and security concerns mean that reconstruction cannot proceed without open borders for materials and stable political arrangements. Experts like Shelly Culbertson of RAND predict a decades-long, incremental process, where rebuilding occurs gradually while people live in damaged areas, but immediate needs like water and safety take precedence for residents.
The disagreement over Gaza’s future is not merely about physical reconstruction but involves core issues of sovereignty, identity, and regional power dynamics. With no consensus, Gazans like Nihad al-Madhoun resort to makeshift shelters, their hopes for recovery dimmed by the slow pace and political deadlock.
Ultimately, the outcome will shape the Middle East’s trajectory, influencing peace efforts and humanitarian conditions for years, but for now, the path forward remains mired in conflict and uncertainty.