Voting commenced in Bihar, India, on Thursday in a high-stakes state election seen as a critical test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The outcome could influence national politics ahead of the 2029 general elections.
More than 74 million voters are eligible to cast ballots in the two-phase election for Bihar’s 243-seat legislature, with results scheduled for November 14. The election comes amid allegations of irregularities in the revision of electoral rolls, which the opposition claims disenfranchised millions, particularly minorities. Both the BJP and the Election Commission have denied these allegations, stating the revision was necessary due to migration and demographic changes.
Bihar, one of India’s poorest and most populous states, has long been a political bellwether. A win for Modi’s alliance could bolster his coalition at the federal level, while a loss might signal growing discontent over economic issues like unemployment and law and order. The state sends 40 lawmakers to India’s parliament, making it crucial for Modi’s national strategy.
The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and its ally Janata Dal (United) under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, faces a challenge from the opposition alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. Additionally, a new party formed by political strategist Prashant Kishor, Jan Suraaj, has entered the fray. Kumar, who has governed Bihar for much of the past two decades, is a key Modi ally, while the RJD, led by Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son Tejashwi, promises change from past misrule.
Economic concerns are central, with both alliances promising job creation and welfare schemes. Bihar’s agrarian economy struggles with poverty, and millions migrate for work, making employment a key voter issue. In September, Modi announced cash transfers to women as part of an employment program, highlighting efforts to woo this important voting bloc.
Women voters are expected to play a pivotal role, comprising nearly half the electorate. Their turnout has been rising, and parties are targeting them with financial assistance. For instance, local campaigners like Kushboo Devi in Masaurhi village focus on mobilizing women, noting their higher participation rates in polling.
The election is also significant as it may mark the last major political battle for veteran leaders Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, who have shaped Bihar’s politics for decades. Both are in poor health, and their parties’ futures hinge on this outcome. Analysts say a loss for the NDA could destabilize Modi’s federal coalition, which relies on Kumar’s JD(U) for support.
Ultimately, the results on November 14 will not only determine Bihar’s next government but also set the stage for upcoming state elections in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Assam, and influence the 2029 national polls. A strong performance by Modi’s party would reinforce his dominance, while a setback could embolden the opposition and reshape India’s political landscape.