President Donald Trump’s central campaign pledge to immediately lower prices for Americans has met with limited success after one year in office, as costs for groceries, electricity, and cars have largely increased, while gasoline prices have seen a modest decline.
Trump was elected for a second term largely due to his promises to tackle inflation, which he blamed on his predecessor Joe Biden. He assured voters that prices would drop “starting on Day One” for items ranging from groceries to energy and vehicles. However, official data and expert analysis reveal a more complex reality, with many factors beyond presidential control influencing price trends.
Grocery prices rose by 2.7% in the 12 months to September 2025, with significant hikes for specific items: coffee increased by 18.9%, ground beef by 12.9%, and bananas by 6.9%. Since Trump took office in January, prices have risen each month except for one recorded fall in April. Factors contributing to these increases include Trump’s tariffs on imports, such as a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, and immigration policies that may have raised labor costs in farming, where an estimated 40% of workers are undocumented. Weather events, like poor growing seasons in South America, also exacerbated price rises for commodities, though some items like eggs have decreased due to resolving supply issues.
Electricity prices have increased contrary to Trump’s pledge to halve them within 12 to 18 months. Average residential electricity rates climbed from 15.94 cents per kWh in January 2025 to 17.62 cents in August 2025. This rise is attributed to surging demand, particularly from data centers powering artificial intelligence applications, as well as cuts to renewable energy subsidies and tariffs on imported steel that raise the cost of building new power generators. Professor James Sweeney from Stanford University noted that it was “technically impossible” to achieve Trump’s promise at the time it was made due to the inherent costs of energy delivery infrastructure.
In the automotive sector, the average price of a new car surpassed $50,000 for the first time in September, up from $48,283 in January. Erin Keating from Cox Automotive explained that tariffs have been the biggest inflationary factor, contributing at least one percentage point to annual price increases, which are now around 4% per year compared to the typical 2-3%. She anticipates further rises in 2026 as manufacturers adjust to trade policies, though tax breaks in Trump’s spending bill may incentivize some purchases by offsetting costs for consumers.
Gasoline prices saw a slight decrease, falling from $3.125 per gallon in January to $3.079, but remain well above Trump’s goal of below $2 per gallon. The White House points to efforts to unleash American energy production as a reason for this modest improvement, with an official citing a gas price comparison website showing a national average of $2.97 per gallon. However, analysts note that global oil market dynamics and domestic production levels continue to play a significant role in determining fuel costs.
Economists like Diane Swonk of KPMG and David Ortega, a food economics expert, emphasize that Trump’s policies on tariffs and immigration have added to inflation pressures, though external factors like climate issues and global market trends also play roles. Swonk noted that these shifts “are now starting to show up as inflation pressures,” while Ortega highlighted the difficulty in quantifying the exact impact of policy changes on prices, given the interplay of multiple variables. The White House has defended its actions, stating that supply-side policies are “taming Joe Biden’s inflation crisis” and expanding traditional energy sources to meet demand.
Looking forward, the ongoing inflationary trends suggest that Trump’s promises may continue to face challenges, with potential implications for consumer affordability and political accountability. Experts caution that while some price adjustments are possible, deeply rooted economic forces and external shocks will likely keep inflation a persistent issue, requiring nuanced policy responses beyond campaign rhetoric.