A new report by former John Lewis chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield warns that Britain is sliding into an economic crisis due to a £85 billion annual sickness bill, with a significant increase in people out of work for health reasons since 2019. This alarming trend threatens the country’s prosperity and has prompted government and business partnerships to address the issue.
The review, commissioned by the Department for Work and Pensions but produced independently, found that 800,000 more people are out of work now compared to 2019 because of health conditions, costing employers £85 billion each year in lost productivity and sick pay. Sir Charlie Mayfield, who led the review, emphasized that this economic inactivity crisis could worsen without intervention, but it is not inevitable. The report highlights that one in five working-age individuals is not employed or seeking work, largely due to long-term sickness.
A major factor driving this increase is a surge in mental health issues among young people, with a 76% rise in 16- to 34-year-olds out of work due to long-term sickness between 2019 and 2024. Additionally, older workers are leaving the workforce because of musculoskeletal problems like aches and joint pain. Sir Charlie noted that these health challenges are creating a substantial drag on economic growth and opportunity, affecting both individual livelihoods and national stability.
The broader economic impact extends beyond employers, with the state spending £212 billion annually on illness-related inactivity, equivalent to nearly 70% of income tax revenue. This includes lost output, increased welfare payments, and added pressure on the National Health Service. The report underscores that work is generally beneficial for health, and vice versa, but current trends are leading to weaker growth, higher public spending, and strained health services.
In response, the government has launched a taskforce led by Sir Charlie to help people return to work and announced a partnership with over 60 major employers, including Tesco, Google UK, and John Lewis. These “vanguard employers” will develop and refine workplace health approaches over the next three years, aiming to reduce sickness absence, improve return-to-work rates, and increase employment for disabled individuals. Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden described this as a “win-win” for employees and employers, essential for economic growth.
However, some business groups have raised concerns that Labour’s proposed Employment Rights Bill could disincentivize hiring people with existing health conditions. The bill includes measures such as guaranteed hours and restrictions on zero-hour contracts, which employers fear might stifle flexibility and growth. Despite this, the government is pushing forward with initiatives to create a voluntary certified standard for workplace health by 2029, focusing on preventative approaches.
Personal stories highlight the human side of this issue, such as Loz Sandom, a 28-year-old with mental and physical health conditions who has been out of work for a year. Despite having a degree and previous experience, Loz struggles to find employers willing to provide reasonable adjustments, pointing to a need for better support and awareness. This case illustrates the barriers faced by many and the importance of employer engagement in fostering inclusive workplaces.
Sir Charlie advocates for a shared responsibility model where employers, employees, and health services collaborate to manage health at work. Recommendations include integrating workplace health provisions with the NHS App and moving away from traditional fit notes to early intervention strategies. The Resolution Foundation and CIPD have welcomed the report’s focus on overcoming structural barriers, but stress that success depends on widespread understanding and policy support.
Looking ahead, the government’s efforts aim to turn the tide on economic inactivity, with the taskforce and employer partnerships set to pilot new approaches. If successful, these measures could help retain talent, reduce costs, and bolster the UK’s economic resilience, ensuring that health challenges do not derail future prosperity.