Global nuclear threats are intensifying as the United States moves to restart nuclear testing after over three decades, amid a collapse of arms control agreements and rapid expansions by China and Russia, signaling a perilous new era of strategic instability.
President Donald Trump’s recent directive to resume nuclear weapons testing, communicated via social media, has sparked international alarm, though U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified that the tests would not involve nuclear explosions but rather non-critical assessments of weapon components. This reassurance aimed to mitigate concerns, but Trump’s insistence in a televised interview that the U.S. must test “on an equal basis” with rivals underscores a confrontational approach. The move responds to perceived provocations, including Russian President Vladimir Putin overseeing nuclear exercises with advanced missile systems capable of striking anywhere on Earth.
The broader context involves the steady erosion of arms control frameworks, particularly the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), set to expire in early 2026 with no renewal prospects. Russia suspended its participation after the Ukraine invasion, blocking U.S. inspections and dismantling a key element of nuclear transparency. Without these safeguards, the world risks an unchecked expansion of nuclear arsenals, reminiscent of the Cold War but with more actors and advanced technologies, raising the stakes for global security.
China’s nuclear arsenal is growing at an unprecedented rate, adding approximately 100 warheads annually, with projections indicating it could exceed 1,500 by 2035. Beijing justifies this buildup by comparing its smaller stockpile to those of the U.S. and Russia, but this challenges non-proliferation norms and heightens global instability. Both China and Russia have denied conducting recent nuclear tests, with Chinese officials urging the U.S. to uphold moratoriums and maintain international disarmament efforts.
Compounding these risks is the integration of artificial intelligence into nuclear command and control systems, which could accelerate decision-making and increase the potential for miscalculation. While leaders like President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping have affirmed the need for human control over nuclear launches, no formal agreements enforce this principle, raising fears of automated escalation scenarios reminiscent of fictional doomsday machines. Experts warn that AI-driven analyses could compress crisis timelines, leading to errors with catastrophic consequences.
Current geopolitical flashpoints, such as the war in Ukraine, exacerbate these dangers, with Putin repeatedly issuing nuclear threats over the conflict. In response, Trump has deployed nuclear-armed submarines toward Russia, illustrating how military posturing could spiral out of control. Diplomatic efforts persist, but the absence of robust arms control talks means that even minor miscalculations could have devastating impacts, as highlighted by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moving the Doomsday Clock to its closest point ever to midnight.
In this uncharted era, maintaining deterrence through modernized arsenals and extended security guarantees, such as to allies like Saudi Arabia, is essential to prevent further proliferation. However, renewing explosive nuclear tests is widely viewed as counterproductive, likely prompting similar actions by adversaries and undermining global non-proliferation regimes. Instead, a coordinated international approach focused on new norms for AI use and diplomatic engagement offers a safer path, though such initiatives are not yet underway and require urgent attention.
The convergence of political decisions, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions signals a precarious future where nuclear risks are more immediate and complex than in decades. Without urgent efforts to rebuild trust and establish new safeguards, the world risks sliding into an uncontrolled arms race with dire implications for global security, emphasizing the need for leadership and cooperation to navigate this dangerous landscape.