On this Election Day in the United States, voters are heading to the polls in key state and local races that could serve as bellwethers for the political climate ahead of next year’s midterm elections, with contests in New York City, Virginia, New Jersey, and a critical redistricting vote in California all under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s influence.
This so-called “off year” election does not feature presidential or congressional races, but there are still several critical votes to watch tonight that could indicate broader political trends and voter sentiments. The outcomes may provide early signals for the 2026 midterms, where control of Congress will be at stake, making these races significant beyond their immediate impact on governance and policy directions.
In New York City, the mayoral race has captured national attention as Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old state assemblyman and democratic socialist, seeks to become the city’s youngest mayor in over a century. Mamdani shocked the political establishment by defeating former governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary, but Cuomo continues to campaign as an independent, while Republican Curtis Sliwa remains in the race. If Mamdani wins, he would be the city’s first Muslim mayor, and Democrats nationwide are watching to see if his focus on cost-of-living issues like rent and wages resonates with voters. Though Mamdani leads in polls, the gap has narrowed as Cuomo emphasizes crime and public safety concerns in the final stretch.
California voters are deciding on Proposition 50, which would allow the state to redraw its congressional districts mid-decade, a rare move aimed at countering Republican-led redistricting efforts in states like Texas and Missouri. Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic leaders argue this is necessary to maintain fair representation, but Republicans, who hold only nine of the state’s 52 House seats, strongly oppose it. The campaign has drawn over $158 million in donations, with polls showing 60% support among likely voters, largely split along partisan lines. This redistricting vote could reshape the political landscape for years to come.
The New Jersey governor’s race is unexpectedly close in this traditionally blue state, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a current congresswoman, facing Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman. The contest has drawn involvement from high-profile figures, including former President Barack Obama campaigning for Sherrill and President Donald Trump endorsing Ciattarelli in a virtual rally. Rhetoric has been heated, with Ciattarelli’s ads targeting Sherrill’s policy answers, and the outcome could reflect changing voter attitudes in a state that has had Republican governors like Chris Christie in the past.
Virginia’s gubernatorial election is another key battleground, with the state poised to elect its first female governor regardless of the outcome. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a U.S. congresswoman, is competing against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor. If Earle-Sears wins, she would become the first black woman elected governor in U.S. history. The race highlights divisions over economic policies, with Spanberger emphasizing the impact of federal cuts on Virginia’s economy and Earle-Sears focusing on cultural issues like transgender rights, mirroring national debates.
Throughout these elections, the influence of President Donald Trump is palpable, even though he is not on the ballot. In the New York City mayoral race, Trump has threatened to cut federal funding if Mamdani wins, calling him a communist, and has endorsed Cuomo. He also backed Ciattarelli in New Jersey and his administration’s actions spurred the redistricting battle in California. This underscores how national politics continue to shape local and state elections, with Trump’s endorsements and statements playing a significant role in voter considerations.
The results from these races will be closely analyzed for insights into the electorate’s mood, potentially influencing party strategies for the upcoming midterms. They may also affect policy directions on issues from economic recovery to social justice, setting the stage for future political battles and indicating whether current trends will hold or shift in the coming year, with implications for national governance and partisan dynamics.