Voters in New Jersey are heading to the polls on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, in a gubernatorial election that political analysts are viewing as a crucial barometer of national sentiment towards the current administration. The race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is not only pivotal for state governance but also carries significant implications for the broader political landscape.
The election pits Mikie Sherrill, a four-term U.S. representative and former Navy helicopter pilot, against Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who narrowly lost to incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. Both candidates have raised nearly $20 million each, highlighting the competitive nature of the contest. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET, with results expected to trickle in throughout the evening. The outcome will determine who succeeds the term-limited Murphy, shaping New Jersey’s policies on issues like crime, energy, and civil rights.
This race is under the national spotlight because New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections have historically served as indicators of voter mood towards the party in the White House. From 1989 to 2017, the state elected a governor from the opposite party of the sitting president, a trend broken in 2021 with Murphy’s reelection under President Joe Biden. This year, the outcome could signal whether Democrats can maintain their hold or if Republicans are gaining ground, especially after President Donald Trump flipped several counties in the 2024 presidential election.
President Trump has actively engaged in the race, endorsing Ciattarelli and participating in a tele-rally on the eve of the election. Trump criticized Sherrill, while she focused on her record and the state’s civil rights history, avoiding direct responses to his attacks. The president’s involvement, including social media posts urging voters to reject Democratic policies, underscores the national stakes and reflects how this contest is intertwined with broader partisan divides.
Early voting has set records, with over 735,000 ballots cast before Election Day, the highest for a non-presidential election year. About 56% of early voters were Democrats, 27% Republicans, and 17% unaffiliated, suggesting strong engagement across party lines. This high turnout could influence the final outcome, as it indicates heightened public interest in an election seen as a referendum on national issues like the economy and crime.
Beyond the governor’s race, New Jersey voters are also deciding on all 80 seats in the state General Assembly, where Democrats hold a 52-28 majority. Additionally, Jersey City has a competitive mayoral race with seven candidates, including former Gov. Jim McGreevey, who resigned in 2004 amid scandal. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff will be held on December 2, adding another layer to the political dynamics in a state that has not voted for a Republican president since 1988.
The Associated Press will provide live results and declare winners once the outcome is clear, with vote counting expected to extend into the early hours. Recounts are rare in New Jersey, and the AP will only call races when the lead is insurmountable. As of the latest updates, the race remains too close to call, with both campaigns expressing confidence and voters weighing in on key issues like affordability and public safety.
The results from New Jersey, along with elections in Virginia and New York City, will be analyzed for insights into the 2026 midterms and beyond. A win for Ciattarelli could boost Republican morale and influence strategies for challenging Democratic incumbents, while a Sherrill victory might reinforce Democratic approaches to appealing to moderate voters. Either way, this election serves as a microcosm of the national political climate, offering a clear view of how voters feel about the president and the direction of the country.