Hurricane Melissa is rapidly intensifying and is forecast to become a rare Category 5 hurricane before making a historic landfall in Jamaica, posing a severe threat of life-threatening flash flooding, mudslides, and devastating storm surges across the Caribbean region.
As of the latest updates, Hurricane Melissa has strengthened into a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, located about 115 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and moving westward at a slow pace of 5 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects it to reach Category 5 status with winds up to 160 mph before landfall, likely on Monday or Tuesday, due to favorable conditions like warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear. This slow movement exacerbates the risks by prolonging exposure to heavy rainfall and increasing the potential for catastrophic flooding and landslides.
Jamaica is under a hurricane warning, with officials urging residents to seek shelter immediately and complete preparations without delay. All airports have been closed, and the government, led by Prime Minister Andrew Holness, has emphasized the importance of readiness amid widespread anxiety. The NHC projects rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches across the island, with some areas potentially receiving up to 40 inches, which could lead to “catastrophic and life-threatening” flash flooding and numerous landslides.
The storm surge is anticipated to peak between 9 and 13 feet above ground level along Jamaica’s southern coast, threatening coastal communities with destructive waves, rip currents, and inundation. Hurricane-force winds are expected to cause extensive damage to infrastructure, including long-duration power and communication outages, and could isolate many communities. NHC deputy director Jamie Rhome highlighted that the storm’s slow motion significantly increases the rainfall potential, making this a “catastrophic event” for Jamaica.
Beyond Jamaica, hurricane watches are in effect for parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, with similar impacts expected. In Haiti, landslides from the hurricane have already claimed two lives, according to the Civil Protection agency, and the capital, Port-au-Prince, is among the areas at risk. Melissa is forecast to weaken to a Category 3 storm after passing over Cuba and moving through the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, but it will still bring heavy rains, strong winds, and flooding to these regions.
If Melissa makes landfall as a Category 5 hurricane, it would be the strongest to hit Jamaica since records began, surpassing Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which was a Category 4 storm. The NHC notes that there is “very little practical difference” in impacts between Category 4 and 5 at landfall, underscoring the severity of the threat. Historical context shows that such intense hurricanes are rare, but they can cause unprecedented damage to infrastructure and communities.
Scientists point to climate change as a factor in the increasing intensity of hurricanes like Melissa, as warmer oceans provide more moisture and energy for storm formation. This year’s Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be above-normal due to these conditions, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration citing warmer seas and potential stronger monsoon activity. As the storm approaches, emergency responses are mobilizing across the Caribbean, and residents are advised to stay informed through official channels, secure their homes, and prepare for potential evacuations.
Looking ahead, Melissa’s path will be closely monitored as it moves north and then northeast after impacting Jamaica, with further landfalls expected in eastern Cuba and possibly the southeastern Bahamas. The prolonged nature of the storm means that recovery efforts may be challenging, and international aid could be necessary to address the widespread damage. Authorities continue to stress the importance of safety measures and community resilience in the face of this formidable natural disaster.