Soaring beef prices in the United States have escalated into a significant political issue, with President Donald Trump proposing measures such as increased imports from Argentina and urging domestic ranchers to reduce prices. However, these initiatives are meeting fierce resistance from cattle producers who doubt their effectiveness in addressing the underlying market problems.
Beef prices have reached unprecedented levels, with retail prices for beef mince rising 12.9% and steaks up 16.6% over the past year, far outpacing general food inflation. This surge has turned grocery costs into a focal point for political debate, challenging Trump’s previous claims of taming inflation. The increases are driven by a dramatic decline in the US cattle inventory, now at its lowest in nearly 75 years, and a 17% drop in cattle ranches since 2017, reducing domestic supply amid steady consumer demand.
Years of drought have forced ranchers to slash herd sizes, exacerbating the supply crunch. Christian Lovell, an Illinois rancher, noted that dry conditions have limited grazing areas, contributing to a “broken market.” Additionally, ranchers face pressure from four decades of consolidation in meat processing, where high costs for inputs like fertilizer and equipment intensify financial strain. This industry contraction has left many struggling to maintain operations.
In response, Trump took to social media this week, directly calling on ranchers to lower prices, while his administration floated plans to potentially quadruple beef imports from Argentina. The Agriculture Department unveiled a “big package” aimed at ramping up domestic production by opening more land for cattle grazing and supporting small meat processors. These moves come as the president seeks to fulfill promises to reduce grocery costs for Americans.
However, Trump’s proposals have sparked a backlash from ranchers and industry groups. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, which has historically supported Trump, said the import plan “only creates chaos” and would not lower store prices. Eight House Republicans expressed concerns in a letter, and Justin Tupper of the US Cattlemen’s Association argued that only the major meat packers would benefit from increased imports. Ranchers worry that these solutions could undermine their livelihoods without addressing core issues.
Market concentration is a central problem, with four firms—Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef—controlling over 80% of beef processing. Austin Frerick, an agricultural policy expert, described these as “consolidated markets gouging ranchers and consumers,” with lawsuits alleging collusion to inflate prices. Though the Trump administration revoked a Biden-era order on food supply consolidation, it has taken steps to investigate competition issues, but experts say more focused action is needed.
Economists predict high prices will persist until at least the end of the decade, as rebuilding herds takes years. Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University noted the administration’s “hands are tied” on interventions, while Brenda Boetel of the University of Wisconsin highlighted the disconnect between shrinking herds and strong demand. This long-term outlook suggests consumers will continue facing elevated costs without structural changes.
Ranchers like Mike Callicrate have turned to direct-to-consumer models to survive, but many lack the resources for such shifts. Without addressing market concentration and providing stable markets, there is little incentive to expand herds. Bill Bullard of R-CALF USA emphasized that ranchers “lack confidence in the marketplace” and see Trump’s ideas as focusing on symptoms rather than root problems, leaving the industry in a precarious state amid ongoing policy debates.