The United States has amassed its largest military presence in the Caribbean in decades, deploying warships, fighter jets, and authorizing CIA operations, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking but widely interpreted as a coercive strategy to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.
For two months, the US military has been building up a formidable force in the Caribbean Sea, including guided missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships, B-52 bombers, F-35 fighter jets, drones, and marines. This deployment, the most significant in the region for decades, has seen long-range bombers conduct ‘bomber attack demonstrations’ near Venezuela’s coast, while the CIA has been authorized for covert operations, escalating tensions between the two nations. Satellite imagery and public tracking data reveal at least 10 US ships and various aircraft stationed around Puerto Rico and near Trinidad and Tobago, with special forces support vessels like the MV Ocean Trader adding to the strategic posture.
The US government claims its actions target narcotics trafficking, stating it has killed dozens in strikes on small vessels allegedly carrying drugs and ‘narco-terrorists.’ However, it has not provided evidence for these claims, and the strikes have drawn condemnation from regional actors and raised questions about their legality under international law. Experts note that intercepting drugs does not require such a massive force, and the first strikes occurred in the Caribbean, a minor route for drug trafficking compared to the Pacific Ocean, fueling skepticism about the stated objectives.
Despite the official narrative focusing on drugs, many analysts and experts argue the true aim is regime change. Dr. Christopher Sabatini of Chatham House suggests the military buildup is a show of force intended to intimidate Maduro’s inner circle and the Venezuelan military into turning against him, rather than a genuine anti-drug operation. The US has long refused to recognize Maduro’s presidency after the 2024 election was widely dismissed as neither free nor fair, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has openly expressed desire for his ouster, though avoiding explicit calls for military intervention.
The US has increased its bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, but this has not yielded defections. Experts note that Venezuela’s elites, enriched by corruption in the oil-rich state, are unlikely to be swayed by such sums, and the military would require guarantees of immunity to act against Maduro. Michael Albertus, a political science professor, points out that authoritarian leaders like Maduro maintain tight control over their inner circles, making defections improbable even with higher incentives, while economic sanctions have worsened Venezuela’s crisis without destabilizing the regime.
Skepticism about the drug war rationale is bolstered by evidence that Venezuela is not a major producer of cocaine or fentanyl, with a 2025 DEA report indicating 84% of US-seized cocaine comes from Colombia. Trump’s claim that a struck vessel was ‘loaded up with mostly fentanyl’ conflicts with data showing fentanyl primarily enters the US from Mexico, not South America. Instead, the operation appears to leverage accusations from the US Justice Department, which since 2020 has labeled Maduro the head of a drug trafficking organization, though without public evidence, and Maduro denies the charges, accusing the US of imperialism.
The presence of advanced assets like F-35 stealth jets, Reaper drones, and special forces helicopters signals preparedness for various missions, from reconnaissance to potential strikes on Venezuelan soil. The CIA’s involvement could range from information operations and sabotage to funding opposition or even attempts to capture Maduro, drawing on a history of covert interventions in Latin America that fuels regional suspicion. The key uncertainty is how long Trump will maintain this pressure and whether it will succeed in prompting defections or lead to broader conflict, with analysts divided on whether the buildup is mere signaling or a prelude to more aggressive action.