China’s Communist Party has concluded its fourth plenum, setting the stage for the next five-year economic plan that underscores Beijing’s confidence in its long-term strategic approach as a competitive edge against the United States. The meeting, held from October 20-23, 2025, approved early recommendations for the 15th five-year plan, emphasizing continuity and predictability amid global uncertainties, with officials touting this as a key advantage over perceived instability in Western democracies.
The plenum, a key political gathering in Beijing, focused on drafting the blueprint for China’s economic and social development from 2026 to 2030. A communique released by state media outlined ambitions to achieve a significant leap in economic strength, technological capabilities, and international influence by 2035. Officials highlighted the importance of national security and military modernization, while also addressing domestic challenges like stagnating consumption and socioeconomic inequality. The plan will be finalized by China’s rubber-stamp legislature in March 2026, serving as a guiding framework for government agencies, businesses, and other organizations.
Technological self-reliance and innovation were central themes, with ministers announcing increased investments in artificial intelligence, where China now boasts over 4,500 companies in the sector. For the first time, space exploration was designated a top priority, alongside advancements in quantum technology, biotechnology, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, and sixth-generation mobile communications. This push aims to reduce dependence on imported technology and position China as a leader in high-tech industries, countering U.S. export controls and trade barriers that have heightened tensions between the two nations.
The rivalry with the United States was a recurring focus, with Chinese officials calling for dialogue over confrontation ahead of a planned meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. State media amplified criticisms of U.S. political turmoil, including government shutdowns and policy reversals, while praising China’s ‘long-termism’ as a source of stability. This rhetoric reflects Beijing’s strategy to portray itself as a responsible global leader, leveraging the five-year planning process to showcase its ability to deliver on far-reaching visions in contrast to what it views as shortsightedness in multiparty systems.
Domestically, the plan addresses pressing issues such as China’s persistently low birth rate, with pledges to create a ‘birth-friendly society’ by improving childcare, education, and elderly care. Officials also committed to gradually raising the retirement age to mitigate the economic impacts of an ageing population and tap into the ‘silver economy.’ Efforts to combat ‘involution’—intense internal competition leading to price wars and oversupply—were emphasized, alongside measures to boost consumption, address local government debt, and stimulate regional economies through targeted stimulus, though questions remain about long-term sustainability.
Personnel changes at the plenum signaled ongoing anti-corruption campaigns, with the lowest military attendance in decades and the replacement of key figures like He Weidong, a vice-chair of the Central Military Commission. His successor, Zhang Shengmin, the military’s anti-corruption chief, reinforced the message that there is ‘no finish line’ in these efforts, underscoring Xi Jinping’s drive to root out corruption and strengthen party discipline. These moves aim to ensure loyalty and efficiency in implementing the five-year plan, particularly in sensitive sectors like defense and technology.
Historically, China’s five-year plans have driven both successes and failures, from the famine-inducing Great Leap Forward to recent achievements in green technology and electric vehicles. While state backing has fueled global dominance in sectors like EVs, it has also led to market saturation and company failures. Despite these drawbacks, Xi Jinping views the planning mechanism as a ‘vital political advantage’ in achieving China’s revitalization, emphasizing the system’s ability to coordinate national resources and maintain strategic focus in the face of international pressures.
Looking ahead, the detailed five-year plan will be unveiled in March, shaping China’s approach to economic growth, national security, and global diplomacy. The emphasis on high-tech industries and self-reliance reflects a broader strategy to navigate U.S. rivalry and assert China’s role as a stable alternative in a turbulent world. The upcoming Xi-Trump meeting will test these dynamics, with Beijing positioning its long-term planning as a cornerstone of its rise, even as it grapples with internal economic headwinds and external geopolitical frictions.