Tropical Storm Melissa is posing a severe flood threat to the Caribbean as it slowly churns through the region, with forecasts indicating it could strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend. The storm’s unpredictable track adds to the uncertainty, putting millions at risk of life-threatening conditions.
Located about 300 miles south of Haiti, Melissa is moving west-northwest with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for parts of Haiti and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica, signaling the immediate danger. Heavy rainfall is already spreading across the area, with forecasts predicting 5 to 10 inches of rain in southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic through Friday.
The combination of torrential rain and mountainous terrain in Hispaniola and Jamaica creates a high risk of catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides. Meteorologists warn that some areas could receive over a foot of rainfall, exacerbating the threat in regions prone to such disasters. The slow movement of the storm means that affected areas will experience prolonged periods of heavy precipitation.
Melissa is expected to intensify as it moves over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, which are particularly conducive to storm development this late in the season. Forecasters predict it will reach hurricane status by Saturday, potentially becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. If it does, it would be the first to form within the Caribbean this year.
The storm’s future path remains highly uncertain, with two main scenarios under consideration. In one, Melissa could turn northward later this week, bringing it close to Jamaica and western Haiti as a hurricane. Alternatively, it might stall and move westward, potentially affecting Central America next week. Both outcomes involve significant rainfall and wind impacts.
This event highlights the ongoing activity of the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30. Recent years have seen an increase in rapid intensification of storms, a trend linked to climate change, with three of this season’s four hurricanes undergoing such processes. Melissa could follow suit if conditions remain favorable.
While the direct threat to the mainland United States is currently low, Florida and other coastal areas could experience rough surf and rip currents. Puerto Rico is more likely to see some of the storm’s effects, particularly in terms of rainfall. Authorities are urging residents in the Caribbean to monitor updates and prepare for possible evacuations.
As Melissa continues to develop, its exact track and intensity will become clearer in the coming days. The situation underscores the importance of preparedness during hurricane season, especially in vulnerable regions like the Caribbean, where the impacts of such storms can be devastating.