President Donald Trump’s decisive intervention secured a ceasefire in Gaza and facilitated a hostage exchange, marking a significant but incomplete step towards resolving the conflict. While Trump celebrated the deal as a historic achievement, analysts warn that it lacks the foundations for a lasting peace and faces immediate challenges in implementation.
Trump’s quick trip to Israel and Egypt served as a victory lap, where he basked in applause and proclaimed the ceasefire as potentially the ‘greatest deal.’ His direct pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was crucial in overcoming previous rejections, though Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt also played key roles in leveraging Hamas. The agreement, however, is narrowly focused on halting hostilities and exchanging hostages for prisoners, not addressing broader peace issues.
The deal mandates a ceasefire and the release of hostages, but it is not a peace agreement or the start of a formal peace process. Point 15 of Trump’s plan calls for an International Stabilization Force in Gaza, but deploying such a force is contingent on a solid ceasefire, which is already showing cracks. Hamas has hinted it might give up some weapons but will not disarm fully, citing its ideology of resistance.
Within 24 hours of the initial joy over hostage releases, tensions resurfaced as Hamas returned only seven of the 28 bodies of killed hostages, citing difficulties in locating graves amid rubble. Israel responded by cutting aid flow in half and keeping the Rafah crossing closed, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich advocated for renewed military pressure. The Israel Defense Forces continue to occupy over half of Gaza and have killed Palestinians approaching their positions, using unclear rules of engagement.
Hamas is reasserting its authority, with armed, masked men patrolling streets and executing alleged collaborators in public displays of power. This signals Hamas’s survival and determination to maintain control, complicating efforts to establish alternative governance in Gaza. The group’s refusal to disarm poses a direct challenge to Netanyahu’s threat to finish the job ‘the easy way or the hard way.’
The ceasefire’s fragility is underscored by early violations and the lack of a robust agreement between warring parties. Past American presidents have also struggled to achieve Middle East peace, and Trump may discover that sustained diplomatic effort and compromises are necessary beyond presidential decrees. The current deal, while a breakthrough, does not resolve deep-seated issues like Palestinian statehood or Israeli security.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts to implementing the Trump plan’s details, including demilitarizing Gaza and forming a governance committee. However, with Hamas resisting disarmament and Israel maintaining military presence, the path to stability remains uncertain. The international community watches closely, as any escalation could undo the precarious ceasefire and reignite conflict.