The midseason College Football Playoff bubble watch reveals a dynamic and unpredictable landscape, with Indiana’s surge and several traditional powers facing critical tests to secure their postseason hopes. Week 7 of the 2025 season reshaped the playoff race, emphasizing the high stakes in the expanded 12-team format as teams vie for position.
Indiana’s victory at Oregon stands as the season’s most impactful win, catapulting the Hoosiers into elite contention with a 93% chance to make the playoff according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. This result not only solidified Indiana’s status alongside Ohio State and Miami as national leaders but also highlighted the volatility of the race, where a single game can dramatically alter a team’s trajectory. South Florida and Texas Tech also saw significant boosts, with the Bulls’ dominant win over North Texas increasing their playoff chances by 20% and positioning them as a strong Group of 5 contender.
In the SEC, Tennessee finds itself on the bubble, needing defensive improvements, particularly against the run, to challenge for a spot. The Vols’ upcoming clash with Alabama could be a turning point, potentially elevating their playoff odds to 52% with a victory. Texas, despite a morale-boosting win over rival Oklahoma, remains an enigma due to a challenging schedule that includes road games at Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Georgia, requiring consistent performance to overcome two early losses.
The Big Ten features Ohio State and Indiana as clear front-runners, but USC’s convincing win against Michigan has thrust the Trojans into the conversation. USC’s playoff hopes could reach 58% with a victory over Notre Dame, though tough matchups against Oregon loom. Washington, under coach Jedd Fisch, is another team to watch, with opportunities to prove itself against Michigan and Oregon, though analytical models give them less than a 50% chance in those critical games.
The ACC sees Miami as the only team currently projected in the playoff, but Georgia Tech and Virginia are in the mix. Georgia Tech’s game at Duke could significantly impact their chances, while Virginia must avoid losses to unranked opponents to stay relevant in a wide-open conference race. The ACC championship remains up for grabs, with multiple teams capable of earning the automatic bid.
In the Big 12, Texas Tech leads the pack, but BYU and Cincinnati are key bubble teams. BYU’s undefeated record faces stern tests against Utah and Texas Tech, while Cincinnati’s resurgence has put them in contention, though a tough schedule ahead includes matchups with Utah, BYU, and TCU. The conference’s depth suggests multiple teams could remain in the playoff discussion deep into the season.
Notre Dame, as an independent, has a precarious path, with a 50% chance to reach the playoff if it wins out, but it relies on other results for an at-large bid. In the Group of 5, South Florida’s strong résumé makes them the favorite for the automatic spot, but undefeated UNLV and Memphis are also in the hunt, with UNLV facing a critical game against Boise State to maintain its perfect record.
The projected midseason bracket awards first-round byes to Ohio State, Miami, Indiana, and Texas A&M, setting up intriguing first-round matchups like South Florida at Alabama and LSU at Ole Miss. As the season enters its second half, key games will determine which teams solidify their positions and which fall by the wayside, ensuring every weekend carries playoff implications for contenders across all conferences.