Thursday, October 9, 2025
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Tropical Storm Jerry has formed and should strengthen into the Atlantic’s next hurricane

Tropical Storm Jerry has developed over the central Atlantic Ocean and is forecast to intensify into a hurricane, posing potential threats to Caribbean islands while steering clear of the United States mainland. This marks the tenth named storm of the 2025 season, highlighting a late surge in Atlantic activity.

Tropical Storm Jerry officially formed on Tuesday, October 7, 2025, with sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. Located approximately 900 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, the storm was moving west-northwest at a brisk pace across open waters. The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory, emphasizing the system’s rapid development and expected strengthening in the coming days. Forecasters noted that Jerry’s formation followed a period of relative quiet in the Atlantic, breaking a lull that had persisted earlier in the season.

The storm is projected to become a hurricane by Wednesday or Thursday, potentially reaching Category 1 status as it approaches the Caribbean. Its track is predicted to bring it near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday or Friday. While direct landfall is not currently anticipated, the proximity could result in significant weather impacts for the region. Residents in affected areas are advised to monitor updates closely as the storm evolves.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for several islands, including Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Guadeloupe, indicating that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within 48 hours. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected to reach these islands by Thursday, accompanied by rainfall totals of up to 4 inches. This raises concerns for flash flooding and other hazards, prompting local authorities to urge preparedness.

Jerry’s path is influenced by a cold front sweeping off the East Coast of the United States, which is likely to deflect the storm out to sea. This steering pattern reduces the threat to the U.S. mainland, as Jerry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda over open water. Historical data shows that such atmospheric conditions are common in October, often directing storms away from coastal areas and minimizing landfall risks.

The 2025 hurricane season has seen a late surge in activity, with three hurricanes forming in just over two weeks prior to Jerry’s development. Despite this uptick, no hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. this year. If this trend continues through November, it would mark the first season without a hurricane landfall in a decade, offering a respite after recent destructive storms like Helene and Milton in 2024.

Late-season hurricanes can still be highly destructive, as evidenced by past events such as Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. These storms demonstrate that intense systems can emerge in October, causing widespread damage and underscoring the importance of ongoing vigilance. Forecasters are monitoring potential shifts in weather patterns that could alter current predictions for Jerry or future storms.

Attention is now turning to other regions, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, where conditions may become more favorable for storm development in mid-October. The Central American Gyre, a broad area of stormy weather, could spawn additional systems, though it is too early to confirm specific threats. Ongoing monitoring by the National Hurricane Center will provide crucial updates as the season progresses.

In summary, while Tropical Storm Jerry poses a moderate risk to Caribbean islands, its trajectory suggests minimal impact on the United States. Residents in vulnerable regions should stay informed and prepared for any changes in the forecast, as the storm’s evolution will be closely watched in the days ahead.

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